中国老年人贫困脆弱性时空变化及障碍因子分析

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Obstacle Factors of Vulnerability to Poverty for the Elderly in China

综合老年人贫困与脆弱性的现有研究成果较少,该文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,以中国28个省(市、区)为研究区域,从暴露风险、敏感性和应对能力维度构建中国老年人贫困脆弱性评价指标体系,运用空间自相关、时空跃迁等方法分析2011—2018年中国老年人贫困脆弱性时空变化特征,并运用障碍度模型探讨其影响因素。结果表明:①2011—2018年老年人贫困脆弱性得到实质性改善,区域间绝对差异与相对差异逐年递减;②老年人贫困脆弱性在空间上整体呈现“东—中—西”阶梯式递增特征,具有较强的转移惰性,并受周边区域影响较大;③影响老年人贫困暴露风险的主要障碍因子分别为慢性病、房屋结构和居住方式,妇女人口、农村人口和经济支持是影响老年人贫困敏感性的主要因素,制约老年人应对贫困能力提升的主要障碍因素为住房资产、土地资产和社交活动。

Based on the data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS),28 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China are taken as the study areas to construct an index system for evaluating vulnerability to poverty of the elderly in China from the dimensions of exposure risk,sensitivity and coping ability.The methods of spatial autocorrelation and temporal and spatial transition are used to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of vulnerability to poverty for the elderly in China from 2011 to 2018,and then the obstacle model is introduced to explore its obstacle factors.The results are as follows.①The vulnerability to poverty for the elderly has been substantially improved from 2011 to 2018,and the absolute and relative differences between regions in China have decreased year by year.②The vulnerability to poverty for the elderly generally presents a stepwise increasing feature of"East-Central-West",with strong transfer inertia,and is greatly affected by surrounding areas.③Chronic diseases,housing structure and living style are the main factors affecting the risk of poverty exposure of the elderly.Meanwhile,female population,rural population and economic support are important factors affecting the sensitivity of the elderly to poverty.Housing assets,land assets and social activities are the main obstacles to the improvement of the ability of the elderly to cope with poverty in China.