产业结构、能源消费结构和节能减排效果的动态演进与门槛效应研究

Research on Dynamic Evolution and Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure,Energy Consumption Structure and Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Effect

能源消费结构是影响节能减排效果的主要因素,但是能源消费结构又受到本地区产业结构的制约。基于2008—2019年中国30个省份产业结构、能源消费结构和节能减排的面板数据,利用熵值法测算了省级地区的节能减排效果,利用核密度法考察了三者的动态演进特征,构建了能源消费结构对节能减排效果影响的门槛模型,探讨在不同产业结构门槛水平下能源消费结构对节能减排效果的影响。研究结果显示:在样本考察期间,各省份能源消费结构和节能减排效果均呈现集中态势,且差距逐渐缩小;东中西部地区产业结构高级化、产业结构技术化和产业结构偏离度呈现明显差异;能源消费结构对节能减排效果的影响存在明显的门槛特征,能源消费结构对节能减排的影响并不是单调的线性关系,在不同的产业结构水平下,能源消费结构对节能减排的影响不同。

Energy consumption structure is the main factor affecting the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction,but the energy consumption structure is restricted by the regional industrial structure.Based on the panel data of industrial structure,energy consumption structure and energy conservation and emission reduction of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2019,this paper uses entropy method to calculate the energy conservation and emission reduction effect of provincial areas.It uses nuclear density method to investigate the dynamic evolution characteristics of the three,and constructs the threshold model of the influence of energy consumption structure on the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction.Then it discusses the impact of energy consumption structure on energy conservation and emission reduction effect under different threshold levels of industrial structure.The results show:during the sample investigation period,the energy consumption structure and energy conservation and emission reduction effect of each province show a centralized trend,and the gap is gradually narrowing.There are obvious differences in the upgrading of industrial structure,the technicalization of industrial structure and the deviation degree of industrial structure in the East,central and western regions.The impact of energy consumption structure on energy conservation and emission reduction has obvious threshold characteristics.The impact of energy consumption structure on energy conservation and emission reduction is not a monotonous linear relationship.Under different levels of industrial structure,the impact of energy consumption structure on energy conservation and emission reduction is different.