碳中和目标下城市绿色转型的要素解构与系统重建

Factor Deconstruction and System Reconstruction of Urban Green Transformation under the Goal of Carbon Neutralization

碳中和目标已成为气候治理和城市绿色转型的共识。在此背景下,准确识别影响城市绿色转型的关键要素并进行系统重建,对深入贯彻绿色发展理念和推进区域高质量协调发展具有重要意义。首先,从转型主体视角搭建碳中和目标下城市绿色转型影响要素体系,运用相关性判别法识别出17个关键要素,然后运用DEMATEL-ISM方法分析关键要素间的作用关系及层级关系,并采用MICMAC方法分析要素间的驱动—依赖关系,最终得到四层三阶的多级递阶结构模型。结果表明:绿色生活能力是根源致因,产业结构分布、资源消耗节控、绿色需求潜力等是基本保障,绿色技术创新、环境规制力度、环境治理效果等是关键推动力,绿色资源配置及基础设施建设是重要基础;在碳中和目标下具体进行城市全面绿色转型时需对不同层级要素进行综合考虑。

The goal of carbon neutrality has become the consensus of climate governance and urban green transformation.In this context,accurately identifying the key elements affecting urban green transformation and carrying out systematic reconstruction are of great significance to deeply implement the concept of green development and promote regional high-quality coordinated development.Firstly,the influencing factor system of urban green transformation under the goal of carbon neutralization is built from the perspective of transformation subject,and 17 key elements are identified by correlation discrimination method.Then,the action relationship and hierarchical relationship between key elements are analyzed by using DEMATEL-ISM method,and the driving dependence relationship between elements is analyzed by using MICMAC method.Finally,a four layer and three-level hierarchical structure model is obtained.The results show that green living ability is the root cause,industrial structure distribution,resource consumption control and green demand potential are the basic guarantee.Green technology innovation,environmental regulation and environmental governance effect are the key driving forces,and green resource allocation and infrastructure construction are the important foundation;When carrying out the comprehensive green transformation of cities under the goal of carbon neutralization,it is necessary to consider the factors at different levels comprehensively.