“碳中和”下光伏对西北荒漠生态因子与植被分布的影响

The Impacts of Centralized Photovoltaic Power Plants on Ecological Drivers and Vegetation Development in China’s Northwestern Desert Regions under the Carbon Neutrality Strategy

我国的"碳中和"战略将推动西北荒漠区太阳能资源的大规模利用。光伏基地的下垫面结构变化对荒漠土地植物生长的生态要素将产生什么影响,目前尚缺乏系统性认识。本文以腾格里沙漠南沿宁夏中卫市的光伏产业园区为例,通过分析卫星遥感植被指数和已有文献资料发现:2011-2021年间园区内有植被覆盖的像素单元从近乎为0增长至约33%,光伏阵列的建设改变下垫面的能量、温湿度和风场等生态因子是促使植被由无到有发育的决定因素。在满足2060年我国约4.0~4.3万亿kWh光伏发电需求的前提下,最可能情境的光伏建设用地需求为2.4~4.0万km^(2),可促进约1.6~2.6万km^(2)荒漠土地的植被发育。这虽不足以根本改变西北荒漠区的生态格局,但继续深入研究光伏基地中生态因素的变化和效应,对认识西北荒漠区植被发育机制、生态阈值和水资源利用的可持续性有重要意义。

Large scale utilization of solar energy in the arid region may facilitate vegetation growth in northwestern deserts in China.The vegetation analysis using Landsat images indicates that rate of pixels with vegetation growth has increased from nearly 0%in 2011 to about 33%in 2021 within a large photovoltaic power plant,located in the south of the Tengger Desert.The structure of solar panel arrays plays a pivotal role in facilitating vegetation development by changing the energy balance,temperature,moisture and wind in the microenvironment.To meet the projected demands on 4.0~4.3 trillion kWh of solar power supply for China’s carbon neutrality strategy by 2060,the total area for solar power plants in deserts is about 24~40 thousand km^(2),and may stimulate 16~25 thousand km^(2)of desert lands changed to grazing lands under the most likely scenarios,which cannot fundamentally change the ecological landscape in northwestern China.Further study of the vegetative development processes from deserts in solar power plants can improve our understanding on the key ecological drivers and thresholds,and the ways of sustainable water use.