转移支付与地方政府税收努力——基于断点回归设计的再考察

Transfer Payments and Local Tax Efforts:A Revisit Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

理论上,转移支付的增加会通过收入替代效应等渠道影响地方政府的税收努力程度,进而削弱转移支付的均等化功能。不过,由于无法准确界定地方政府税收努力的作用边界,以及无法有效处理两者关系之间的内生性问题,相关研究结论长期面临较大的争议。基于我国县级层面的财政税收和宏观经济数据,并结合企业层面微观数据,采用模糊断点回归设计(Fuzzy RD)的思路重新考察了转移支付对地方政府税收努力的影响。研究发现,无论是一般性转移支付还是专项转移支付,其规模的增加都显著降低了地方政府的税收努力。进一步地,对应宏观层面税收努力的下降,转移支付的增加降低了辖区内企业所得税的实际税率,但主要影响地方政府具备征税权的企业范围。

In theory,an increase in transfer payments affects the level of local governments’tax efforts through channels such as the revenue substitution effect,which in turn weakens the equalization function of transfer payments.However,due to lack of effective solutions to endogeneity problems,the conclusions of existing research are controversial.Based on the macroeconomic data at the county level in China and combined with the micro data of Chinese industrial enterprises,the impact of transfer payments on local governments’tax efforts is re-examined using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design(Fuzzy RD).It is found that both general and special transfer payments exert a significantly negative impact on local tax efforts.Furthermore,corresponding to the decline in tax efforts,the increase in transfer payments reduces the effective income tax rate of enterprises in the jurisdiction,but this effect is primarily present in firms where local governments have the right to collect taxes.This study has important policy implications for the reform of the current transfer payment system in China.