基于SEIR模型的重大公共卫生事件舆情演化与舆论引导仿真研究

Simulation Study on Public Opinion Evolution and Guidance of Major Public Health Events Based on SEIR Model

网络媒体时代,信息的生产传播模式和速率较传统媒体时代已经发生了本质变化,网络舆情演化更具复杂性。重大公共卫生事件爆发后,社会公众对于事件相关舆情信息具有极高关注度,往往会在社会层面引发明显的情绪波动,因此,掌握重大公共卫生事件舆情信息演化规律,科学进行舆情应对与舆论引导乃是当前公共管理领域的重要工作。本文基于SEIR模型利用动态仿真研究方法,在NetLogo仿真平台模拟了重大公共卫生事件网络舆情的演化规律,进行了仿真实验,提出了更具科学性的重大公共卫生事件舆情应对与舆论引导措施。

In the age of network media,the mode and rate of information production and transmission have changed fundamentally compared with the age of traditional media,and the evolution of online public opinion is more complicated.After the outbreak of major public health events,the public pays great attention to the event-related public opinion information,which often causes obvious emotional fluctuations at the social level.Therefore,it is an important work in the field of public management to master the evolution law of public opinion information of major public health events,and scientifically respond to and guide public opinion.Based on the SEIR model and the dynamic simulation method,this paper simulated the evolution law of online public opinion of major public health events on the NetLogo simulation platform,conducted simulation experiments,and proposed more scientific public opinion response and public opinion guidance strategies for major public health events.