多源数据下的摆线轮磨齿机贝叶斯可靠性评估

Bayesian Reliability Evaluation of Cycloid Gear Grinding Machine Based on Multi-source Data

在摆线轮磨齿机的可靠性评估中,针对现场试验数据较少的问题,提出考虑先验数据多源性的贝叶斯可靠性评估方法。利用不同样本间的可信度建立混合先验分布,然后采用贝叶斯方法对多源先验信息进行融合,得到的融合信息作为综合先验信息通过结合仿真数据的似然函数,进而得到参数的后验分布。仿真实例表明:通过所提方法得到的MTBF点估计值为997.37,MTBF误差为3.2%,比通过传统贝叶斯方法得到的误差小,且拟合的可靠度曲线与实际情况更贴近,说明了所提方法在磨齿机的可靠度评估上更为精准。

In the reliability evaluation of cycloid gear grinding machine,aiming at the problem of less field test data,a Bayesian reliability evaluation method considering the multi-source of prior data was proposed.A mixed prior distribution was established by using the credibility between different samples,and then the multi-source prior information was fused by using the Bayesian method.The fusion information was used as the integrated prior information by combining a likelihood function of the simulation data,the posterior distribution of the parameters was obtained.The simulation example shows that the MTBF point estimation value obtained by this method is 997.37,and the MTBF error is 3.2%,which is smaller than that obtained by traditional Bayesian method.The fitting reliability curves are closer to the actual conditions,the proposed method is more accurate in the reliability evaluation of the gear grinding machine.