乌克兰危机以来日本对外战略调整趋向

Trends in Japan’s Foreign Strategic Adjustments since the Ukraine Crisis

冷战结束至今,日本面对急剧变化的安全发展环境,为实现政治大国目标加速调整对外战略。乌克兰危机爆发以来,日本对外战略调整显现新趋向:政治立场的“美西方化”、政策议题的“高位化”、合作机制的“小多边化”,以及战略手段的“军事化”。日本试图从乌克兰危机中牟取红利,推动自身突破安保底线,摆脱战后体制束缚,实现“军事正常化”目标。日本还将中国清晰定位为“前所未有的最大战略挑战”,其对外战略中的对华指向性更加明显。在大国竞争与地缘冲突叠加的背景下,日本借机调整对外战略,或将对中国周边安全及东亚地区安全产生负面影响。

Since the end of the Cold War,Japan has been facing a rapidly changing security environment and has accelerated its adjustments of foreign strategies to achieve its aspiration of becoming a“political power”.Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict,Japan’s foreign strategic adjustments have reflected new trends:the“westernization”of political position,the“high-politicization”of policy issues,the“small-multilateralization”of cooperation mechanisms,and the“militarization”of strategic means.Japan intends to benefit from the Russia-Ukraine conflict,push itself through security bottom line,break free from post-war constraints,and achieve the goal of“military normalization”.Japan has also clearly identified China as its“biggest strategic challenge”,and its foreign strategy continues to intensify its focus on China.In the context of great power competition,the ongoing pandemic and geopolitical conflicts,Japan’s foreign strategic adjustments may have negative impacts on the security of China’s periphery and the East Asian region.