城镇化视角下我国产业化住宅节能减排模型研究

A Study of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Model of Domestic Industrialized Housing in China from the Perspective of Urbanization

为了找到推进国内住宅产业化发展的关键政策导向与战略推进思路,通过对产业化住宅中的预制装配式剪力墙结构混凝土住宅与传统现浇剪力墙结构住宅的对比,构建在物化阶段产业化住宅节能节材与减少温室气体排放的货币化收益模型。同时利用城镇化视角构建3~5年内国内人口与住宅存量影响下的住宅需求量模型,并与产业化住宅物化阶段节能减排收益模型相结合,形成“十四五”期间我国产业化住宅在物化阶段节能减排收益总模型。并对模型使用者在分析城际之间的产业化住宅节能减排收益差异、分析不同预制化率与费用标准对节能减排收益的影响方面提供使用建议。

In order to find out the key policy orientation and strategic promotion of the domestic residential industrialization,a monetization benefit model for energy conservation,material conservation,and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the materialization stage of industrialized residential buildings is constructed by comparing residential buildings of prefabricated shear wall structure concrete with traditional residential buildings of cast-in-place shear wall structure.Meanwhile,based on the perspective of urbanization,a housing demand model is constructed under the influence of domestic population and housing stock within three to five years,combining it with the energy conservation and emission reduction income model of the industrialization stage of housing to form a total model of energy conservation and emission reduction income of China's domestic industrialization housing during the"14th Five Year Plan"period.And suggestions are provided for model users in analyzing the differences in energy-saving and emission reduction benefits of industrialized residential buildings between cities,and analyzing the influence of different prefabrication rates and cost standards on energy-saving and emission reduction benefits.