情报威慑效果的影响因素研究

A Study on Influencing Factors of Intelligence Deterrent Effect

[研究目的]情报威慑是解决复杂冲突中不确定因素的重要手段,研究情报威慑效果的影响因素,能为发展威慑力量、管控冲突风险、维持战略稳定提供有力支撑。[研究方法]通过阅读相关资料,基于情报和威慑的属性交叉,着力从威慑主、客体两方面考察情报威慑效果的影响因素。[研究结论]从威慑客体的角度,军事实力、国家内外安全形势和决策者的认知判断相互作用,共同影响威慑客体对情报威慑的认识与反应;在威慑主体方面,威慑内容、威慑时机以及其他辅助行动等影响因素能影响情报威慑效果。

[Research purpose]The research on the influencing factors of intelligence deterrence effect,an important mean to solve complex conflicts,can provide strong support for developing deterrence force,controlling conflict risk and maintaining strategic stability.[Research method]Based on relevant materials,fusing the theories of intelligence and deterrence,analysis on the influencing factors of intelligence deterrence effect from the main and object of deterrence may be beneficial.[Research conclusion]Military strength,security situation and decision-makers'cognition and judgment jointly affect the deterrence object's understanding and response to intelligence deterrence.Regulating deterrence content,deterrence opportunity,executing other auxiliary actions as occasion requires,could influence the effect of intelligence deterrence.