望子成龙、机会不平等与生育意愿

Holding High Hopes for One’s Children,Equality of Opportunity and Fertility Intention

文章认为,我国的低生育意愿嵌入在“望子成龙”的文化背景和机会不平等的结构性特征中;子女的成就会给居民带来荣耀和满足,但由于机会不平等的影响,付出同等努力程度后子女却可能无法获得相应的成就或回报;这时,由于子女成就的不确定性,生育意愿将受到抑制。不仅如此,从机会不平等对居民生育意愿的抑制效果看,家庭对子女成就的重视程度、社会必要养育成本和收入水平均对该抑制效果有重要影响。基于CGSS等数据,本文对系列理论命题进行了实证检验。结果表明:(1)机会不平等显著抑制了我国居民的生育意愿,在更换模型设定、重新测算机会不平等和采用工具变量法等检验后,证实两者存在稳健的因果关系;(2)从影响渠道看,机会不平等会降低预期子女成就,进而抑制居民生育意愿;(3)社会必要养育成本越高,意愿生育水平越低;但即使降低了社会必要养育成本,机会不平等对生育意愿的抑制作用仍存在,甚至在社会必要养育成本较低时,其边际作用更大;(4)从其他调节变量看,工资收入提升可缓解机会不平等对生育意愿的抑制作用,而家庭对子女成就的重视程度则加剧其抑制效果。本文的发现有助于理解我国生育意愿偏低的特征事实,并拓展了对机会不平等及其影响的研究。

Low fertility rate and potential population decline may restrict China’s economic and social development,the crux of which is“want to have children but dare not to have children”or“do not want to have children”and the latter boils down to low fertility intentions.Starting from the macro structural factor of inequality of opportunity,this paper discusses the rea⁃sons of residents’lack of fertility intention.This paper argues that China’s low fertility intention is embedded in the cultural background of“Holding High Hopes for One’s Children”and the structural characteristics of unequal opportunities;The achievements of children bring honor and satisfaction to the residents,but under the conditions of unequal opportunities,children with the same level of effort may not receive corresponding achievements or rewards.At this point,even if the policy reduces the cost of childbearing and parenting,the desire to have children may still be suppressed,manifested as“reluc⁃tance to have children”.The theoretical analysis of this paper also shows that,from the perspective of the inhibition effect of opportunity inequality on residents’fertility intention,the wage income has a moderating effect,while the cost of socially necessary parenting and emphasis of family on children’s achievement aggravate the effect.After the theoretical analysis,the authors use CGSS micro data to conduct empirical analysis and test.The results show that:Firstly,the inequality of opportu⁃nity significantly inhibited the fertility intention of Chinese residents.After changing the model setting,remeasuring the in⁃equality of opportunity and using the instrumental variable method,the conclusion was still robust.Secondly,From the per⁃spective of action path,the inequality of opportunity reduces the expected achievement of children,and thus reduces the fer⁃tility intention of residents.Thirdly,the higher the cost of socially necessary parenting,the lower the level of intended fertili⁃ty;However,even if the cost of socially necessary parenting is reduced,the inhibition effect of opportunity inequality on fer⁃tility intention still exists,and even when the cost of socially necessary parenting is low,the marginal effect is greater.Final⁃ly,this paper analyzes the moderating effect of other variables and finds that the increase of wage income can alleviate the in⁃hibitory effect of opportunity inequality on fertility intention,while the family’s emphasis on children’s achievements can ag⁃gravate the inhibitory effect.The findings of this paper are helpful to understand the characteristics of low fertility intention in China,and this research expand the research on opportunity inequality and its impact.