区域分工、经济周期联动性与经济增长极建设--国内价值链分工的视角

Regional Division,the Economic Cycle Linkage and the Construction of Economic Growth Pole:From the Perspective of National Value Chains

新发展格局下,中国区域经济发展呈现出新特征,构建以内需为主导的分工体系和更为合理的区域分工模式具有重要战略意义。立足国内价值链,文章设计了“国内大循环”背景下中国区域分工角色的指标,并使用高阶空间滞后模型探析了各省经济周期联动性的区域特征,在此基础上,文章将研究视角拓展至经济增长极建设,设计了“双循环”格局下区域中心省份的指标。研究发现:2007—2015年南方东部沿海地区依然是保障我国经济增长的核心动力来源,中、西部地区在NVC中的参与度和贡献度稳步提升,北方东部沿海和东北地区在NVC中的经济构成比重有下降趋势,长江经济带在我国经济增长的支撑地位逐渐凸显。中国省际经济周期联动性具有典型的区域化特征,省际间的经贸互动显著加强了其区域化特征。最后基于“双循环”依存度指标对区域经贸中心省份的选择进行定量分析,为经济增长极建设的有序推进补充一定事实依据。该研究具有两方面政策含义:一是中国在打造全国统一大市场的过程中要更加注重区域分工对国内分工体系的资源配置和整合能力,充分释放区域(间)分工对内需体系构建的重要促进作用。二是中国在推进区域协调发展战略进程中,应当依托区域经济增长极等新型空间组织形式,通过展开精准帮扶或合作实现区域经济协同发展。

Under the new development pattern,it is of great strategic significance to build a division system dominated by do⁃mestic demand and a more reasonable regional division model.At present,the unbalanced development of China’s regional economy presents a new feature.The development model of urban clusters and the construction of economic development belts have become important forms of regional development strategies at this stage.Especially in the context of the“fragmen⁃tation”of domestic vertical specialization,understanding the evolution characteristics of China’s regional economic develop⁃ment from the perspective of NVCs is of great practical significance for promoting the strategy of regional coordinated develop⁃ment.Based on NVCs,this paper designs the indicators of the role of China’s regional division of labor in the context of the“domestic economic cycle”,and uses the high-order spatial lag model to explore the regional characteristics of the linkage of the economic economic growth poles,and designs the indicators of regional central provinces in the“dual circulation”pattern.Based on the index design of this paper,the objective laws of China’s regional economic development are analyzed,and countermea⁃sures and suggestions are provided for China to realize the coordinated development of regional economy.The research conclusions are as follows.First,from 2007 to 2015,the eastern coastal region is still the core source of China’s economic growth,the participation and contribution in NVCs,the proportion of the eastern coastal and northeast re⁃gions in NVCs has a downward trend,the supporting position of the Yangtze River Economic Belt gradually highlighted in China.Second,China’s provincial economic cycle linkage has typical regional characteristics,and the inter provincial eco⁃nomic and trade interaction has significantly strengthened its regional characteristics.Third,based on the“dual circulation”dependency index,quantitative analysis is made on the selection of regional economic and trade center provinces to supple⁃ment a certain factual basis for the orderly promotion of economic growth pole construction.The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.From a theoretical point of view,this paper designs two indica⁃tors,regional contribution and regional dependence,based on the value added decomposition framework,and analyzes the relationship between China’s provinces and regional economic coordinated development from the two dimensions of destina⁃tion and source,which will enrich the theoretical connotation of national regional value chains.From a practical point of view,analyzing the construction of regional economic growth poles through the domestic(foreign)trade dependence index under the“dual circulation”pattern will provide certain policy references for the effective promotion of the regional coordinat⁃ed development strategy and the optimization of China’s spatial organization.