产业数字化、就业效应与人力资本错配

Industrial digitization,employment effects and human capital mismatch

探究产业数字化、就业效应以及人力资本错配三者间的影响关系,对推动实现高质量就业具有重要意义。基于2003—2018年中国38个产业的面板数据,运用投入产出方法和空间面板模型,探究产业数字化与关联产业数字化溢出的就业效应,讨论就业极化效应背后的人力资本错配问题。结果表明:产业数字化对劳动力就业具有显著的正向影响;进一步考虑溢出效应发现,相似产业与上游产业的数字化溢出能显著促进本产业的就业需求,下游产业的数字化溢出对本产业的就业需求则无显著影响;从技能异质性层面来看,产业数字化对低技能和高技能劳动力需求的影响分别存在促进作用减小和由抑制转为促进的演变过程,反映了产业数字化进程中的人力资本错配现象。基于此,建议持续推进产业数字化进程,推动人力资本与数字经济发展的协同适配,以扩大就业规模,实现高质量就业。

The current employment pressure in China is enormous,and it is urgent to improve the quantity and quality of employment.With an accelerating penetration of digital economy into various industries,industrial digitization has become a key driving force for the development of the digital economy,and the impact of industrial digitization on labor employment cannot be ignored.The relationship between industrial digitization,employment effects,and human capital mismatch should be explored.It is of great practical significance to grasp the characteristics of industrial digital employment and promote the achievement of high-quality employment.Firstly,this paper uses the Input-Output Table and the Input-Output Extension Table that have been published in China to obtain the Input-Output Table of 38 Sectors in China from 2003 to 2018.Then,it uses the input-output method to quantify the industrial digitization level of the 38 industrial sectors from 2003 to 2018.Based on this,a general panel model is used to explore the impact of industrial digitization on labor employment,and input-output methods and spatial panel models are used to explore the employment effects of digital spillovers in similar industries,upstream industries and downstream industries.The issue of human capital mismatch behind the employment polarization effects is discussed.The results show that industrial digitization has a significant positive impact on labor employment,which means the level of industrial digitization has a greater creative effect on labor employment than the substitution effect,and the net employment effect is a promoting effect.Further considering the spillover effect,it is found that digital spillovers from similar industries and upstream industries can significantly promote the employment demand in their respective industries,while digital spillovers from downstream industries have no significant impact on the employment demand in their own industries.From the perspective of skill heterogeneity,there are significant differences in the impact of industrial digitization on the employment of labors with different technical skills in different periods.Specifically,the impact of industrial digitization on the demand for low skilled and high skilled labors has a decreasing promoting effect and an evolving process from inhibition to promotion,reflecting the appearance of human capital mismatch in the process of industrial digitization.Therefore,China should continue to promote the process of industrial digitization by widening the horizontal and vertical links of industrial chains,generating more emerging industries and employment opportunities,and expanding the scale of employment.Vocational skill training should also be carried out for medium and low skilled labors by establishing a vocational education platform,developing skill training and job guidance courses based on different skill types and positions,and encouraging labor forces to understand changes in social needs and actively participate in skill learning.In addition,this paper proposes to further deepen the reform of higher education,and expand the training scale of digital technology talents in fields like data analysis,artificial intelligence and block chain.Other methods include timely reducing or suspending enrollment for majors that do not meet social needs,updating and adjusting university curricula,adding cutting-edge courses such as data mining,building a public education and communication service platform,and providing learning services for digital technology related courses.What is more,high-quality employment can be achieved by shortening the time lag of labor information acquisition and skill learning and promoting the coordinated adaptation of human capital and the development of digital economy.