农民工纳入对城镇养老保险体系的冲击:模型与实证

Impact of the Inclusion of Migrant Workers on the Urban Pension Insurance System:A Model and Empirical Study

基于世代交叠模型,研究了农民工纳入对城镇基本养老保险体系的冲击。研究发现:从微观视角看,农民工纳入后,机关事业单位、城镇企业职工是再分配的转出者,而个缴人员和农民工是财富转移的受益方,即通过高收入者的缴费来补偿低收入者,有利于缩小收入差距和实现共同富裕;从宏观视角看,在现收现付制度下,农民工纳入城镇职工养老保险体系后,由于劳动力结构优化,制度赡养比下降,有利于实现城镇养老保险制度的长期财务平衡从而维持制度可持续运行。若不考虑农民工用工企业的缴费压力,则城镇养老金制度的完善,既要抓住城镇化的机遇和农民工“人口红利”,尽早把农民工纳入城镇养老保险体系;也要未雨绸缪,优化人口结构,以应对农民工迁移衰退期可能形成的挑战和压力。

Based on the overlapping generation model,this article studies the impact of migrant workers inclusion on the urban basic pension insurance system.Research findings:from a micro perspective,after the inclusion of migrant workers,employees of government agencies,public institutions,and urban enterprises are the transferors of income redistribution,while individual taxpayers and migrant workers are the beneficiaries of wealth transfer.This means that low-income people can be compensated by the contributions of high-income people,which is conducive to narrowing the income gap and common prosperity.From a macro perspective,under the current income and expenditure system,including migrant workers in the urban employee pension insurance system,due to the optimization of labor structure and the decrease in the proportion of government support for the retired population,this is conducive to achieving long-term financial balance of the urban pension insurance system and maintaining its sustainable operation.If the payment pressure of migrant workers employment enterprises is not considered,the improvement of the urban pension system should seize the opportunity of urbanization and the“demographic dividend”of migrant workers,and bring migrant workers into the urban pension insurance system as soon as possible.We also need to optimize the population structure to address the challenges and pressures that may arise during the declining migration period of migrant workers.