“留抵退税”与企业绩效:机制与异质性——基于“增值税增量留抵退税政策”的准自然实验

"Tax Retention and Refund"and Corporate Performance:Mechanism and Heterogeneity--A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the VAT Incremental Retention and Refund Policy"

本文利用2016—2021年中国A股上市公司数据,实证分析了增值税增量留抵退税政策对企业绩效影响及其机制,得出如下结论:整体来看,增值税增量留抵退税政策有利于企业的经营活动,提高企业盈利能力;政策实施通过增加企业投资、加大企业研发投入力度以及“效率工资”渠道提高了企业绩效;异质性分析发现,政策实施对销项税额较大的企业不存在显著性影响,但对于销项税额较小的企业实施效果显著。因此,增值税增量留抵退税政策在很大程度上使增值税链条更加畅通,有助于避免由于政府占用企业资金而导致的税收中性偏离,降低资源配置效率。因此,进一步深化增值税税制改革、提高留抵退税水平,对于我国企业发展具有重要意义。

Using the data of China's A-share listed companies from 2016 to 2021,this paper estimates the impact and mechanism of the VAT incremental retention and refund policy on enterprise performance,and concludes that on the whole,the VAT incremental retention and refund policy is conducive to the business activities of enterprises and improves profitability.The implementation of the policy has improved the performance of enterprises by increasing enterprise investment,increasing enterprise R&D investment,and"efficiency pay"channels.However,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy implementation has no significant impact on enterprises with large output tax amounts,but the impact is significant for enterprises with small output tax amounts.It can be seen that the VAT incremental retention and refund policy has made the VAT chain smoother to a large extent,which helps to avoid the tax neutral deviation caused by the government occupying enterprise funds and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.The further reform of the VAT tax system and the promotion of VAT incremental retention and refund are essential to the development of enterprises in China.