黄河流域地区经济韧性测度与时空格局演变

MEASUREMENT AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF ECONOMIC RESILIENCE IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

基于区域经济韧性的内涵,构建了黄河流域地区经济韧性评价指标体系,以黄河流域73个地级市的自然、经济、社会相关数据为基础,采用熵值法、标准差椭圆、空间自相关、空间马尔科夫链等计量方法分析了2005-2020年黄河流域地区经济韧性的时空格局演变特征.结果表明:1)黄河流域地区经济韧性持续提高,处于经济周期中的繁荣发展阶段,正在向一体化、模块化发展方向演进;2)黄河流域各地级市空间差异较大,空间异质性显著;3)黄河流域地区经济韧性存在明显空间依存关系,空间俱乐部收敛特征明显;4)区域背景对黄河流域地区经济韧性空间俱乐部趋同起到重要作用,城市经济韧性空间溢出效应明显.

Based on the connotation of regional economic resilience,an evaluation index system of economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin was constructed.On the basis of the natural,economic and social related data of 73 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin,and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2020 were analyzed by various measurement methods such as entropy method,standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial Markov chain.And the research results showed that:1)the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin continues to improve,and it is in the prosperous development stage of the economic cycle,and is evolving towards the integrated and modular development direction;2)the spatial difference between local cities in the Yellow River Basin is large,and the spatial heterogeneity is significant;3)there is an obvious spatial dependence relationship for the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin,and the convergence characteristics of the space clubs are obvious;4)the regional background plays an important role in the convergence of the spatial clubs of economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin,and the spatial spillover effect of urban economic resilience is obvious.