公路工程项目社会稳定风险评估模型

Risk Evaluation Model of Social Stability in Highway Projects

为了提高公路工程项目的社会稳定风险评估管理水平,以公路工程项目为研究对象,根据公路工程项目建设的特点,从项目的合法性、合理性、可行性和可控性方面,初步构建了重大公路工程项目社会稳定风险评估指标体系。首先运用DEMATEL法对风险指标进行敏感性研究,从而初步筛选出风险指标,得到最终的社会稳定风险评估指标体系。基于风险矩阵对项目的单因素风险进行评估,运用Borda序值法结合AHP法确定了风险指标的初始权重,并根据DEMATEL法得到风险指标的影响权重,从而获得风险指标综合权重,最终得出综合风险等级划分。以北京市某公路工程项目社会稳定风险评估为例,研究结果表明:所构建的公路工程项目社会稳定风险评估指标体系和模型具有可行性和有效性,可以为公路工程项目的社会稳定风险评估提供重要支撑与参考。

In order to improve the management of risk evaluation of social stability in highway projects,according to the characteristics of highway engineering,the index system for risk evaluation has been preliminary established from the aspects of legality,rationality,feasibility and controllability.Sensitivity of risk index is firstly studied by decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method to screen risk index and the final risk evaluation indicator system are obtained.Single factor risk is evaluated by risk matrix.The initial weight of risk index is determined by Borda and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method.The influence weight of index is obtained by DEMATEL method.And then the comprehensive weight is got.Finally,the classification of comprehensive risk is made.The risk evaluation of social stability of a highway project in Beijing is taken as an example.The results show that the index system and model for risk evaluation of social stability are feasible and effective,which can provide important support and reference for risk evaluation of social stability in highway projects.