碳达峰目标下我国能源结构转型路径研究

Research on the Transformation Path of Chinas Energy Structure under the Goal of Carbon Peak

目前,占全球经济总量超过70%的国家已先后在《巴黎协定》的基础上提出“碳中和”目标,全球碳治理体系日趋完善。梳理全球碳中和治理格局,分析重点区域碳中和政策及全球能源技术的发展现状,以我国“30·60”目标为约束条件,测算“碳达峰”对我国电力及能源结构演变路径的影响。未来我国的经济发展需求将推动能源需求持续上升,在碳达峰过程中,化石能源占比下降但规模仍将维持稳定,其在我国电力和能源结构中的主导地位也将继续维持。在具体政策的执行中,应当做加法而非减法,注重投资拉动下的能源结构优化,避免对传统能源的“一刀切”行为。

At present,countries accounting for more than 70%of the global economy have successively put forward the goal of"carbon neutralization"on the basis of the Paris Agreement,and the global carbon governance system is becoming more and more perfect.This paper combs the global carbon neutralization governance pattern,and analyzes the carbon neutralization policy in key regions and the development status of global energy technology.Finally,taking Chinas"30.60"target as the constraint,the impact of"carbon peak"on the evolution path of Chinas power and energy structure is calculated.This paper holds that in the future,China s economic development demand will promote the continuous rise of energy demand.In the process of carbon peak,the proportion of fossil energy will decline,but the scale will remain stable,and its dominant position in Chinas power and energy structure will continue to be maintained.In the implementation of specific policies,we should add rather than subtract,pay attention to the optimization of energy structure driven by investment,and avoid the"one size fits all"behavior of traditional energy.