地理距离与国际贸易风险——“一带一路”倡议的调节效应

Geographical Distance and International Trade Risk——the Moderating Effect of“the Belt and Road”Strategy

国际贸易风险是两国在开展国际贸易中遇到的难题之一。本文构建有调节变量的概念模型来探讨国际贸易风险的影响因素和情境变量。随后,以“一带一路”沿线国家为样本,并形成截面数据为29个、时间跨度为5年的面板数据对该概念模型进行实证检验。结果表明:地理距离对国际贸易风险产生显著的正向影响;随着两国基础设施合作或金融合作的开展,地理距离对国际贸易风险的影响减弱;随着人文交流与合作的开展,地理距离对国际贸易风险的影响增强。根据研究结论,给出选择与中国接壤或距离较近的沿线国家进行国际贸易来降低国际贸易风险的策略,选择具有基础设施合作或金融合作的沿线国家进行国际贸易来弱化国际贸易风险的建议。

International tra de risk is one of the problems encountered by the two countries in carrying out international trade.This paper constructs a conceptual model with moderator variables to discuss the influencing factors and situational variables of international trade risk.Then using the sample of countries along the Belt and Road,and forming panel data with 29 cross-section data and 5-year time span,this paper makes an empirical test for the conceptual model.The results suggest that geographical distance has a significant and positive effect on international trade risk.Moreover,with the development of infrastructure cooperation or financial cooperation between the two countries,the impact of geographical distance on international trade risk has weakened.But with the development of people-to-people exchanges and cooperation,the impact of geographical distance on international trade risk has enhanced.According to the results,this paper gives the strategies of reducing international trade risk by choosing the countries bordering with or adjacent to China to carry out international trade,and suggestions on weakening international trade risk by selecting countries along the routes with infrastructure cooperation or financial cooperation to carry out international trade.