货币政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究

Research on Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Investment Behavior

近年来,固定资产投资下降,资金“脱实向虚”问题受到了广泛关注,利用2007年至2018年我国上市公司的非平衡面板数据,研究货币政策不确定性对企业固定资产投资支出的影响发现:货币政策不确定性通过增加金融资产投资收益率来影响企业固定资产投资,货币政策不确定性升高导致企业固定资产投资支出显著下降,非国有企业和发达地区企业固定资产投资的下降的幅度更大。本文在理论上拓展了对企业投资行为影响因素的研究;在实践中,也提示央行要加强前瞻性指导,降低货币政策的不确定性,为企业营造相对稳定的融资环境,保障企业固定资产投资,实现引导资金“脱虚向实”的目标。

In recent years,the investment in fixed assets has declined,and the problem of“substantial to fictitious”has been widely concerned.This paper studies the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the firms’fixed assets investment by using the unbalanced panel data of Listed Companies in China from 2007 to 2018.We found that monetary policy uncertainty affects the fixed asset investment of enterprises by increasing the rate of return on financial asset investment.The increase of monetary policy uncertainty leads to a significant decline in the fixed asset investment expenditure of enterprises,and the decline in the fixed asset investment of non-state-owned enterprises and enterprises in developed regions is even greater.This paper theoretically expands the research on the influencing factors of enterprise investment behavior;In practice,it also suggests that the central bank should strengthen forward-looking guidance,reduce the uncertainty of monetary policy,create a relatively stable financing environment for enterprises,ensure the investment in fixed assets of enterprises,and achieve the goal of guiding funds to“get rid of falseness and turn to reality”.