人口转变过度论——人口负增长下对传统人口转变理论的再思考

Excessive Demographic Transition:Rethinking the Traditional Demographic Transition with Negative Population Growth

根据世界人口发展新趋势,在传统人口转变理论框架的基础上,提出人口转变过度理论,并认为当前人类人口转变远未完成。随着各国生育率持续下降,人类人口发展表现出“较低出生率、较高死亡率、负自然增长率”的特点,并正逐渐由发达国家向其他国家蔓延,我们将这一人口发展模式称为“人口转变过度”。首先,人口转变过度这一人口发展特征的存在意味着传统人口转变中出现的“低出生率、低死亡率、低自然增长率”并不是人类人口发展的最终形态,但人类社会又不可能永远处于人口负增长的状态下,人类自身再生产水平终将会回升到更替水平左右,因而人口转变过度又可以分为“人口转变恶化”和“人口转变回归”两个子阶段。其次,虽然人口转变过度是在传统人口转变基础上形成的,但与传统人口转变存在明显差异,是一个相对独立的人口发展阶段,最主要特征是人口规模持续负增长。再次,人口转变过度形成的原因在于维持高生育率的经济、社会和文化基础发生了改变,是社会生产力进一步提高和社会经济持续发展所产生的客观结果。人类走出人口转变过度的关键是人口再生产水平回升并长期稳定在世代更替水平左右,这依然要有赖于生产力的进一步发展,以及建立与之相适应的生产关系。最后,世界各国人口转变进程存在明显差异,即使未来部分国家在某一时期实现人口再生产水平回升至更替水平,率先走出人口转变过度,但整个世界要完全走出人口转变过度也至少需要上百年时间。上述认识为理解过去及未来人类人口发展提供了新的理论视角。

According to the new trend of population development in the world,this paper proposes a theory of excessive demographic transition based on the theoretical framework of traditional demographic transition,and thinks that the demographic transition of human is far from completed.With the continuous decline of fertility in various countries,population development has shown the characteristics of a“lower birth rate,higher mortality rate and negative natural growth rate”,which is gradually spreading from developed countries to other countries.We call this characteristic of population development“excessive demographic transition”.Firstly,the existence of the excessive demographic transition means that“low birth rate,low mortality rate and low natural growth rate”in traditional demographic transition is not the final form of population development.However,human society can not always be in the state of negative population growth,and the level of human reproduction will eventually rise to around the replacement level,so the excessive demographic transition can be divided into two sub-stages:“deterioration of demographic transition”and“return of demographic transition”.Secondly,although the excessive demographic transition is formed on the basis of traditional demographic transition,it is a relatively independent stage of population development,and the main feature is the continuous negative growth of population size.Thirdly,the reason for the excessive demographic transition is that the economic,social and cultural basis for maintaining high fertility has changed,which is the objective result of the further improvement of social productivity and the sustainable development of social economy.The key for mankind to get out of the excessive demographic transition is that the level of population reproduction will rise and remain stable at the level of generational replacement for a long time,which still depends on the further development of productivity and establishing the corresponding production relations.Finally,there are obvious differences in the process of demographic transition among countries in the world.Even if some countries realize that the level of population reproduction will rise to the replacement level in a certain period in the future,and take the lead in getting out of the excessive demographic transition,it will take at least a hundred years for the whole world to completely get out of the excessive demographic transition.The above understanding provides a new theoretical perspective for understanding the past and future population development of the human.