中国细分行业技能资本替代弹性与技术偏向性

Substitution Elasticity and Technological Progress Bias between Skilled Labor and Capital in China's Subdivided Industries

本文基于多要素投入框架系统考察了资本、三种技能劳动和不同技能劳动内部之间的替代弹性、行业技术进步水平及其偏向性。研究发现:一是我国细分行业的资本—高技能劳动表现为互补关系,资本—中低技能劳动在多数行业中表现为替代关系,并且资本—低技能劳动替代弹性呈现先上升后小幅下降的倒“U”型趋势,本文测算的要素替代弹性时变特征可以为解释我国经济增速放缓提供理论依据;同时,高技能—中低技能劳动在多数行业中表现为互补关系,意味着相比于高技能劳动,资本对中低技能劳动的替代性更强。二是我国细分行业的全部技术水平及国内技术进步水平呈现出明显上升趋势,多数行业的国内技术进步水平与全部技术进步水平增长率的差距在2007年之后逐渐缩小,部分行业甚至出现国内技术进步水平增长率赶超全部技术进步水平增长率的趋势,这一特征在劳动密集型行业中表现尤为突出,说明我国参与全球价值链分工体系的程度不断提高,技术进步有向发达国家收敛的趋势。三是我国细分行业的技术进步偏向于资本和高技能劳动,技术进步增加了资本与高技能劳动收入份额,同时降低了中低技能劳动收入份额,并通过提高高技能劳动收入份额的相对增长率削弱了收入分配偏向资本的程度,该结果验证了近年来我国劳动力组合的收入份额呈现“U”型变化规律的事实。

Factor substitution elasticity,the level of technological progress and its bias are important economic indicators to understand the economic growth momentum,industrial structure change and factor income distribution change mechanism.Especially after China's economy has entered the new normal,the economic growth rate is in the shift period,it is of great significance to clarify the substitution relationship between capital and different skilled labor,as well as the changing trend and biased characteristics of technological progress in segmented industries,for continuously improving the economic growth momentum and optimizing the distribution pattern of labor income.Therefore,based on the multi-factor input framework,this paper uses WIOT and WIOD_SEA data to systematically investigate the substitution elasticity between capital and skilled labor and within different skilled labor,as well as the technological progress level and technological progress bias of subdivided industries.The study found that:First,there is a complementary relationship between capital and high-skilled labor in China's segmented industries,there is a substitution relationship between capital and medium(low)-skilled labor in most industries.Moreover,the substitution elasticity of capital and low-skilled labor presents an inverted“U”shaped trend of first increasing and then slightly decreasing.The time-varying characteristics of factor substitution elasticity measured in this paper can provide a theoretical basis for explaining the slowdown of China's economic growth.Second,both the overall level and the domestic level of technological progress in China's segmented industries have shown a significant upward trend.The gap between the growth rate of domestic and overall technological progress in most industries gradually narrowed after 2007.In some industries,there is even a trend that the growth rate of domestic technological progress is catching up with the growth rate of overall technological progress,which is particularly prominent in labor-intensive industries,indicating that China's participation in the global value chain division of labor system is continuously increasing,and technological progress is gradually converging towards developed countries.Third,the technological progress of China's subdivided industries is biased towards capital and high-skilled labor,and technological progress increases the share of capital and high-skilled labor income,while reducing the share of low-skilled labor income,and weakens the degree of income distribution biased towards capital by increasing the relative growth rate of the share of high-skilled labor income.The following policy implications can be obtained from this study:First,in the process of industrial restructuring and technological upgrading,the industrial sector needs to select suitable technological progress in a timely manner according to the characteristics of factor endowments and factor substitution elasticity,so as to maximize the synergistic effect of factor substitution elasticity and biased technological progress in promoting economic growth and realizing a virtuous cycle of distribution and growth.Second,in the process of China's technological progress gradually convergence to the international frontier level,we must pay special attention to the formation of independent innovation mechanism,fully apply China's existing good digital technology infrastructure,effectively promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation,and improve the inclusiveness of the digital economy.Third,unbalanced economic development is often accompanied by inconsistency between industrial structure adjustment and factor allocation structural adjustment,especially the employment structure adjustment lags behind the industrial structure adjustment,resulting in an imbalance between labor supply and demand between industries.Therefore,we should pay attention to the impact of the reduction of the proportion of industry on the employment structure,and promote the cross-regional and cross-sectoral flow of labor through deepening the labor market reform,so as to hedge the structural employment contradictions caused by the adjustment of the industrial structure.Fourth,with the deepening of capital and the upgrading of industrial technology,the increase in the demand for high-skilled labor has formed a certain degree of crowding out of the demand for low-skilled labor.Therefore,in the medium to long term,China should take improving the quality of labor supply as one of its main directions,and optimize the labor skill supply structure to promote the increase of labor income share.