基于MaxEnt模型及ArcGIS预测浙贝母适生区分布

Predicting Suitable Growth Areas of Fritillaria Thunbergii Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS

目的:研究浙贝母Fritillaria thunbergii Miq.的生态适宜性,为其产地适宜性区域选择提供一定的参考。方法:通过数据收集、实地采样及文献查询,得到47个浙贝母分布点数据,通过百度拾取坐标系统确定分布点经纬度坐标,结合19个生物气候因子、4个(10月至次年6月)单月数据(降水量、太阳辐射、最低温、最高温),3个地形因子及10个土壤因子,采用MaxEnt数学模型和ArcGIS软件进行分析。结果:浙贝母的适生区主要集中在东南区域,总面积占国土面积的14.7%,其中高适生区占0.7%,中适生区占4.3%,低适生区占9.7%。高适生区主要分布于浙江、江苏、安徽三个省份,集中在三省交界处。影响浙贝母适生区分布的主导环境因子为12月最低温度(Tmin12)、5月最低温度(Tmin5)、3月降雨量(Prec3)、11月降雨量(Prec11)、降雨量季节性变异系数(Bio15)、5月太阳辐射(Srad5)。结论:该研究可为浙贝母产地适宜性区域的选择提供一定的科学依据。

Objective:To study the ecological suitability of Fritillaria thunbergii and guide the selection of suitable growth areas.Methods:Through data collection,literature search and field investigation,47 distribution points of Fritillaria thunbergii were obtained.The information about the longitude and latitude of each distribution point was collected by using Baidu Coordinate Pick-up System,combining with 19 bioclimatic factors,4 monthly data(precipitation,solar radiation,the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature)from October to June of the next year,3 topographic factors and 10 soil factors,and using Maxent model and analysis function of ArcGIS software.Results:The suitable growth area of Fritillaria thunbergii in China was mainly in the southeast,especially in Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Anhui,accounting for 14.7%(0.7% were high suitable area,4.3% were middle suitable area and 9.7% were low suitable area)of all China.The the dominant environmental factors affecting the suitable growth areas of Fritillaria thunbergii were minimum temperature in May and December,rainfall in April and November,seasonal variation coefficient of rainfall and solar radiation in May.Conclusion:This study can provide scientific basis for the selection of suitable areas of Fritillaria thunbergii.