地理禀赋、营商环境与外国证券投资——基于金融地理学视角的空间计量分析

Geographical Endowment,Business Environment,and Foreign Portfolio Investments-A Spatial Econometric Analysis from the Perspective of Financial Geography

全球外国证券投资(FPI)呈现出明显的非均衡性空间集聚特征,地理禀赋和营商环境制度变迁是驱动这一重要国际金融现象的关键因素。本文基于证券交易的地理根植性逻辑,以空间杜宾模型和2005—2020年全球90个国家(地区)数据,实证检验了地理禀赋对FPI的影响及其营商环境作用渠道。研究发现:(1)FPI存在显著空间相关性,呈现“高高集聚”和“低低集聚”的空间分布特征。(2)各维度地理禀赋对FPI具有不同的直接效应和空间溢出效应:优越的地理位置能够促进东道国及其邻国的FPI流入;适宜的气候条件有利于东道国吸引FPI,但对邻国具有抑制作用;丰裕的自然资源对东道国及邻国的FPI均产生负向影响,以此反驳了“地理终结”的观点。(3)渠道检验表明,东道国优越的地理位置和适宜的气候条件有助于打造优质营商环境进而吸引FPI,丰裕的自然资源会阻碍改善营商环境,降低对FPI的吸引力,从而论证了“地理禀赋—营商环境—FPI”的作用路径。研究结果为政府依托地理禀赋优化营商环境,从而吸引长期证券投资提供了理论支撑和决策依据。

Global foreign portfolio investment(FPI)exhibits a distinct non-equilibrium spatial agglomeration,driven by geographical endowment and institutional change in business environment.This paper investigates the impact of geographical endowment on FPI and its channels of business environment,by employing the geographical embeddedness of stock exchange,spatial Dubin model,and data from 90 countries spanning 2005-2020.The study reveals:(1)FPI has significant spatial correlation,displaying the spatial distribution characteristics of"high-high agglomeration"and"low-low agglomeration";(2)The direct and spatial spillover effects of geographical endowment on FPI vary with different geographical dimensions.Convenient geographical location can promote the inflow of FPI from home and neighboring countries.Moderate climate conditions are conducive to attract FPI for the home country but have a restraining effect on neighboring countries.Abundant natural resources have a negative impact on the FPI of both home and neighboring countries,strongly refuting the view of the"end of geography";(3)The channel test shows that the host country's convenient geographical location and moderate climate conditions is promotional to establish good business environment and promote the inflow of FPI.However,abundant natural resources deteriorate the business environment and reduce the attraction to FPI,thus demonstrating the path of"geographical endowment-business environment-FPI".This study offers a theoretical support and a decision-making foundation for governments to optimize business environment and attract long-term foreign portfolio investments based on geographical endowment view.