减污降碳协同效应的量化评估研究——基于边际减排成本视角

Quantitative Evaluation of Co-Benefits of Air Pollution Reduction and Carbon Emission Reduction:Based on Marginal Abatement Cost

实现减污降碳协同增效是新发展阶段推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型的内在要求。受范围经济的启发,本文基于边际减排成本视角构造一种新的减污降碳协同效应量化评估方法,运用该方法对我国减污降碳协同效应进行实证考察。研究发现:2006—2018年间,我国减污降碳协同效应年均增长2.63%。党的十八大以来,我国减污降碳协同效应提升更加明显,2012—2018年间,年均增长4.41%。在生态优先、降碳优先和能源革命3种情形下,我国减污降碳协同效应的提升空间可达到29%~43%。本文为量化评估减污降碳协同效应提供了方法论支撑,为“十四五”时期推动减污降碳协同增效提供参考。

Realizing the co-benefits of air pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction is a basic requirement for realizing the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development in the new era.Inspired by the scope economy,this paper constructs a new quantitative evaluation method for the co-benefits of air pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction from the perspective of marginal abatement cost,and uses this method to empirically investigate the co-benefits of air pollution reduction and carbon emission reduction in China.The results show that:At the national level,the annual average growth of the co-benefits of air pollution and carbon emission reduction in China is 2.63%from 2006 to 2018.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the co-benefits of pollution and carbon emission reduction has increased more significantly,with an annual average growth of 4.41%.Under the three scenarios of ecological priority,carbon emission reduction priority and energy revolution,China?s co-benefits of air pollution and carbon emission reduction can be improved by 29%~43%.This paper not only provides methodological support for quantitative evaluation of the co-benefits of air pollution and carbon emission reduction,but also provides reference for promoting the co-benefits during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.