生猪疫情对我国猪肉供应链稳定性的影响

Effect of pig epidemic on stability of pork supply chain in China

试验旨在研究生猪疫情对我国猪肉供应链稳定性的影响。选取12家生猪上市企业作为样本,运用面板Tobit估计方法分析。结果表明,我国猪肉供应链稳定性整体呈上升态势。细分比较,猪肉供应链上游稳定性强于猪肉供应链下游稳定性。生猪疫情暴发后,仔猪价格、玉米价格与猪肉供应链上游稳定性呈显著负相关,生猪养殖规模化水平与猪肉供应链上游稳定性呈显著正相关;仔猪价格、玉米价格与猪肉供应链下游稳定性呈负相关,鸡肉价格、牛肉价格与猪肉供应链下游稳定性呈正相关。研究表明,在有效控制生猪疫情的前提下,针对猪肉供应链上下游稳定性不同的影响因素,政府与企业应当采取差异化举措。

The experiment was to investigate the effect of pig epidemic on stability of pork supply chain in China.A total of 12 listed pig companies were selected as a sample and uses panel Tobit estimation to analyze.The results showed that the overall stability of pork supply chain was on the rise in China.By comparison,the stability of the upstream pork supply chain was stronger than that of the downstream pork supply chain.After the outbreak of the pig epidemic,the prices of piglets and corn were significantly negatively correlated with the upstream stability of pork supply chain,while the level of large-scale pig breeding was significantly positively correlated with the upstream stability of pork supply chain.The prices of piglets and corn were negatively correlated with the downstream stability of pork supply chain,while the prices of chicken and beef were positively correlated with the downstream stability of pork supply chain.The experiment indicates that on premise of effectively controlling pig epidemic,the government and enterprises should take differentiated measures to address different factors affecting the stability of upstream and downstream pork supply chain.