城市化建设与减碳目标分析——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据

Urbanization and Carbon Reduction Targets: A Panel of Data from Countries along the "Belt and Road"

城市化建设是“一带一路”沿线各国经济社会发展的关键任务,也是实现减碳目标的重要支撑。基于2002—2021年“一带一路”沿线62个国家的面板数据,考察城市化建设对碳排放的影响,结果发现:“一带一路”沿线国家的城市化总体上对碳排放增长具有显著促进作用;“一带一路”沿线国家中,城市化对碳排放的影响存在显著的单门槛效应,在城市化发展达到一定水平后,城市化对碳排放的消极作用明显减弱;在经济发展水平不同的沿线国家中城市化对碳排放的影响具有显著差异。

Urbanization is a key task for the economic and social development of countries along the"Belt and Road",and it is also an important support for countries to achieve carbon reduction goals.Based on the panel data of62 countries along the"Belt and Road"from 2002 to 2021,this paper analyzes the effects of urbanization development on carbon emissions.The results of the study show that:Firstly,urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road has a significant contribution to the growth of carbon emissions in general;In the countries along the"Belt and Road",the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions has a significant single-threshold effect,and after the development of urbanization reaches a certain level,the negative effect of urbanization on carbon emissions is significantly weakened;There are significant differences in the impact of urbanization on carbon emissions in countries along the"Belt and Road"with different levels of economic development.