摘要
城市是碳中和的主阵地,随着“双碳”目标的提出,将鼓励更多的减排技术和政策在城市低碳转型中发挥作用.基于此,本研究运用边际减排成本方法,以北京市为例,结合北京市低碳政策推广情况,对具体减排技术的减排潜力和减排成本进行分析,绘制了具有35项减排措施的北京市边际减排成本曲线,识别出有较高经济性的优先减排措施,为北京市实现碳中和目标提供技术措施优先级排序和实施路径建议.研究表明:1)筛选出的电力部门、交通部门、建筑部门减排技术的减排潜力分别为14.96亿、7.66亿、2.55亿t.平均碳边际减排成本为485.12元·t^(−1),电力部门、交通部门、建筑部门的平均减排成本为154.56、417.56、688.28元·t^(−1);北京市应大力推广电力减排措施,保证北京市碳排放进入快速下降通道;2)在35项减排措施中,11项的减排措施的边际减排成本为负,成本有效的CO_(2)减排潜力为39967万t,占39.15%;减排初期应大力推广电动出租车、电动公交车和电动轻型货车、照明节能等负成本措施;3)高边际减排成本措施的减排潜力较大,但不具有成本优势,实施难度大,为促进此类减排技术的扩散,政府可以采取一定程度的补贴或激励政策确保减排投资收益的稳定性,降低减排投资风险.
Cities are the main site to achieve carbon neutrality.Under the carbon neutrality target,more emission reduction technologies and policies will be encouraged,to play a role in the low carbon transformation of cities.In this study the marginal abatement cost method is used to analyze the abatement potential and cost of specific abatement technologies in the context of low-carbon measures promotion in Beijing.The marginal abatement cost curve for Beijing with 35 abatement measures is drawn,and priority abatement measures with high economic efficiency are identified.This study also provides a prioritization of technology measures and implementation paths for Beijing to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.This study shows the following 3 points.1)The screening of emission reduction technologies for the power sector,transportation sector,and building sector reveals an emission reduction potential of 1496 million tons,766 million tons,and 255 million tons,respectively.The average marginal carbon abatement cost is 485.12 yuan·t^(−1),and the average abatement costs of the power sector,transportation sector and construction sector are 154.56,417.56 and 688.28 yuan·t^(−1) respectively.Power abatement measures should be promoted in Beijing to ensure that Beijing’s carbon emissions enter a phase of rapid decline.2)Among the 35 emission reduction measures,the marginal abatement cost of 11 of them is negative;the cost-effective abatement potential is 399.67 million t CO_(2),accounting for 39.15%.Negative cost measures such as electric cabs,electric buses and electric light trucks,and lighting energy efficiency should be vigorously promoted at the early stage of emission reduction.3)High marginal abatement cost measures have high abatement potential,but the implementation is difficult due to cost barriers.To promote the proliferation of such abatement technologies,the government can adopt a certain degree of subsidies or incentive policies to ensure the stability of abatement investment returns and to reduce the risk of abatement investment.
作者
刘耕源
郭丽思
陈钰
颜宁聿
孟凡鑫
李慧
陈操操
谢涛
LIU Gengyuan;GUO Lisi;CHEN Yu;YAN Ningyu;MENG Fanxin;LI Hui;CHEN Caocao;XIE Tao(State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,100875,Beijing,China;Beijing Engineering Research Center for Watershed Environmental Restoration&Integrated Ecological Regulation,100875,Beijing,China;Beijing Climate Change Management Centre,100045,Beijing,China;Beijing SDL Technology Co,Ltd,102206,Beijing,China)
出处
《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2023年第2期249-259,共11页
Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science)
基金
国家社科基金重大资助项目(22&ZD108)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52070021)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2019A1515110816)。
关键词
碳中和措施
边际减排成本
电力部门
交通部门
建筑部门
carbon neutrality measures
marginal abatement costs
power sector
transportation sector
building sector