我国西部地区卫生人力资源配置公平性及发展预测研究

Study on Equity and Development Forecast of Health Human Resources Allocation in the Western of China

目的:分析我国西部地区卫生人力资源配置公平性,预测其发展趋势。方法:运用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数、卫生资源密度指数、GIS空间分析法,研究西部地区卫生人力资源配置公平性,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测其发展情况。结果:西部地区按人口配置卫生人力资源公平性较好,按地理面积配置的公平性较差;卫生人力资源存在空间自相关性和空间聚集性;根据预测结果,西部地区卫生人力资源将实现稳步增长,但地区间发展不均衡。结论:将地理环境因素作为衡量卫生人力资源配置公平性的重要因素之一,充分发挥卫生人力资源配置水平较高地区的帮扶作用,根据预测结果,有针对性地制订卫生人力资源发展计划。

Objective To analyze the equity of health human resources allocation in the western of China,and to predict its development trend.Methods Lorenz curve,Gini coefficient,health resource density index and GIS spatial analysis were used to describe the equity of health human resources allocation in the western of China.GM(1,1)grey model was used to predict its development trend.Results Accor-ding to the population,the equity of health human resources allocation was good.However,according to the geographical area,the equity was poor.Health human resources had spatial autocorrelation and spatial aggregation.According to the prediction,the health human resources in the western region would achieve steady growth with uneven development among regions.Conclusion Geographical environment should be regarded as one of the important factors to measure the equity of health human resources allocation.It is necessary to give full play to the supporting role of areas with high level of health human resource allocation.According to the prediction,the development plan of health human resources should be formulated pertinently.