科技扶贫政策能降低脱贫农户贫困脆弱性吗?——基于鄂南山区S县调查数据的政策效应评估

Can Sci-tech Poverty Alleviation Policies Reduce the Livelihood Vulnerability of Out-of-Poverty Farmers?——Policy Effect Evaluation Based on the Survey Data of S County In Mountainous Area of Southern Hubei Province

文章利用2020年鄂南山区S县贫困户脱贫质量调研数据,采用OLS和Probit回归模型,实证考察了科技扶贫政策对脱贫农户贫困脆弱性的影响,并检验了脱贫农户农技水平和持久脱贫信心在影响机制中的中介效应。结果表明:科技扶贫政策显著抑制了脱贫农户贫困脆弱性。进一步的作用机制分析表明,脱贫农户农技水平和持久脱贫信心在科技扶贫政策和脱贫农户贫困脆弱性之间均发挥着显著的部分中介效应,明确了脱贫能力的提升和脱贫信心的增强是科技扶贫政策降低贫困脆弱性的深层原因。据此提出,在巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接的重要时间节点上,要加强对贫困户的识别能力,精准实施科技扶贫政策,瞄准脱贫人口提供农业技能培训,积极引导提高农户的内生动力,调动其参与科技扶贫的积极性,提高脱贫农户的农技水平,增强持久脱贫信心,使得科技扶贫政策取得更好的减贫增收效果,从而降低贫困脆弱性,确保脱贫农户稳定脱贫、不返贫。

Based on the survey data of poverty alleviation quality of poor households in S County in mountainous area of southernHubei Province in 2020,OLS and Probit regression model were used to empirically investigate the impact of sci-tech poverty allevi-ation policy on poverty vulnerability of poverty alleviation households,and test the mediating effect of agricultural technology skillsand confidence in getting rid of poverty forever of the poverty alleviation households in the influencing mechanism.The resultsshow that sci-tech poverty alleviation policy significantly suppresses the poverty vulnerability of out-of-poverty farmers.Furthermechanism analysis shows that agricultural technology skills and confidence in getting rid of poverty forever play a significant par-tial mediating effect between sci-tech poverty alleviation policy and poverty vulnerability of poverty-stricken farmers,and it isclear that the enhancement of poverty alleviation ability and confidence is the underlying reason for sci-tech poverty alleviation pol-icy to reduce poverty vulnerability.In the crucial period to link up the poverty-alleviation achievements and rural revitalization,weshould improve the recognition ability of the poor,accurately implement sci-tech poverty alleviation policy,provide agriculturalskill training to poverty population,improve the farmer's endogenous power,motivate their enthusiasm to participate in sci-techpoverty alleviation,improve their agricultural skills,strengthen their confidence in getting rid of poverty.In this way,sci-tech pov-erty alleviation policies can achieve better results in poverty alleviation and income increase,thus reducing poverty vulnerabilityand ensuring stable poverty alleviation of rural households and preventing them from falling back into poverty.