基于GM(1,N)模型的湖北省物流需求预测分析

Forecast Analysis of Logistics Demand in Hubei Province Based on GM(1,N)Model

文章通过对湖北省物流需求影响因素进行分析,采用湖北省2011—2020年的统计数据构建灰色(1,N)模型,遴选出与系统特征序列相关程度较高的几个影响因素作为预测指标,构建GM(1,6)模型对湖北省物流进行预测研究。模型检验结果表明灰色(1,6)模型具有较高的可信度和准确度,为湖北省有关部门制定物流业发展规划提供一定的参考。

This paper analyzes the influencing factors of logistics demand in Hubei Province,and adopts the statistical data of Hubei Province from 2011 to 2020 to build a grey(1,N)model,several influencing factors with a high degree of correlation with the system characteristic sequence are selected as the forecasting indicators,and the GM(1,6)model is constructed to forecast the logistics in Hubei Province.The model test results show that the grey1,6 model has high reliability and accuracy,which can provide a certain reference for the relevant departments in Hubei Province to make the development plan of logistics industry.