2020年成渝地区大气污染所致老年人群健康风险评估及预测分析

Health risk assessment and prediction analysis of elderly population caused by air pollution in Chengdu-Chongqing area in 2020

目的量化成渝地区大气污染所致老年人群健康风险,预测未来健康风险变化,为污染治理工作和老年人群健康管理提供理论基础。方法以老龄化较为典型的成渝地区作为研究区域,收集2020年1月1日至12月31日PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_(2)、SO_(2)、CO、O_(3)观测数据。运用健康风险评估和灰色预测模型,测算老年人群健康风险。结果大气颗粒物和NO_(2)呈现“U”型变化趋势,SO_(2)、CO全年浓度变化差异小,O_(3)污染则呈现“夏高冬低”趋势。O_(3)和CO所致健康风险值超过最大可接受水平1×10^(-6),其余污染物所致健康风险值较小,污染物所致年轻老人健康风险均大于高龄老人。预测未来老年人群健康风险值均有下降,由高到低依次为SO_(2)(86.40%)>PM_(10)(51.58%)>NO_(2)(49.62%)>PM_(2.5)(42.43%)>CO(15.48%)>O_(3)(8.29%)。结论O_(3)所致老年人群健康风险最严重,并长期持续。未来政府应重点关注、治理O_(3)污染,发挥社区健康管理功能,提高老年人自我健康管理能力。

Objective To quantify the health risks of the elderly population caused by air pollution in Chengdu-Chongqing area and to predict the changes of health risks in the future,so as to provide a theoretical basis for pollution control and health management of the elderly population.Methods The Chengdu-Chongqing area with typical aging was selected as the research area,and the observation data of PM_(2.5),PM_(10),NO_(2),SO_(2),CO,and O_(3)were collected from January 1 to December 31,2020.Health risk assessment and grey prediction model were used to estimate the health risk of the elderly population.Results The atmospheric particulate matter and NO_(2)showed a“U-shaped”trend of change.The annual concentration of SO_(2)and CO showed little difference,while O_(3)pollution showed a trend of“high in summer and low in winter”.The health risk value caused by O_(3)and CO exceeds the maximum acceptable level of 1×10^(-6),and the health risk value caused by other pollutants was small.The health risk caused by pollutants in the young elder was greater than that in the very old people.The health risk values of the elderly population were predicted to decrease in the future,and the order from high to low was SO_(2)(86.40%)>PM_(10)(51.58%)>NO_(2)(49.62%)>PM_(2.5)(42.43%)>CO(15.48%)>O_(3)(8.29%).Conclusion The health risk caused by O_(3)is the most serious in the elderly population and lasts for a long time.In the future,the government should focus on and control O_(3)pollution,give full play to the function of community health management,and improve the self-health management ability of the elderly.