资本市场成长的逻辑:金融脱媒与科技进步

The Logic behind Capital Market Development: Financial Disintermediation and Technological Innovation

资本市场是现代金融体系的核心和基石。随着市场经济的发展,社会融资和投资活动逐步市场化,形成了脱媒的趋势。金融脱媒成为资本市场存在并得以发展的内生性动力,顺应了企业部门多样化的融资需求,满足了居民部门日益增长的财富管理需求,促进了金融功能从以融资为主向融资与财富管理并重转型。资本市场与科技进步之间存在密切的耦合关系,在促进科技创新发展的同时,资本市场借助科技的进步和企业的成长推动自身的繁荣。本文从资本市场成长的历史和逻辑出发,深入研究促进资本市场成长的两大因素,对资本市场发展的深层机理和结构性变革趋势进行分析和总结,从而有助于中国资本市场功能的健全和中国式现代化的推进。

Two factors shape the capital market:financial disintermediation and technological innovation.Financial disintermediation increases the weight of the capital market in a financial system and technological innovation invigorates the capital market.Financial disintermediation is a driving force of the capital market:it meets firms'diverse financing needs and households'growing wealth management needs,and upgrades the financial system from the sole function of financing to dual functions of financing and wealth management.Technological innovation is integrated with the capital market in such a way that the market boosts and is boosted by innovation and business success associated.We investigate these two powering factors of the capital market and formulate the underlying mechanism and structural evolution behind capital market development based on both historical experience and theoretical reasoning,in the hope to better China's capital market functions and advance the modernization process with Chinese characteristics.Financial disintermediation removes banks,brokers,or other third parties from transactions,and allows individuals to raise funds or make investments directly.In a ceilinged interest rate system,financial efficiency has been seriously weakened.Investors are reluctant to lend for the returns are small and firms do not consider bank loans their optimal financing choice compared to potential but prescribed alternatives.Disintermediation had never been so urgent and necessary in the eve of financial liberalization.We specially note that as the market economy develops,emerging micro financial needs,e.g.,firms'diverse financing needs and households'growing wealth management needs,will catalyze disintermediation,thus making the capital market more and more important in the financial system.The four industrial revolutions have widely promoted technological innovation and made capital increasingly prominent among production factors.The four corresponding financial revolutions have met such explosive needs for capital,and in addition,offered diverse innovative services to advance industrial revolutions.We examine the relationship between the four financial revolutions and four industrial revolutions,concluding that they are tightly linked,i.e.,mutually reinforced.In substance,the four financial revolutions have transformed the financial system from bank-oriented to capital market-oriented.Fusion of technological innovation and capital market development spills over internationally through trade and capital flow,which causes the shifts of global financial centers.China should seize the opportunity of the incoming industrial revolution and build its global financial centers.Despite uncertainty about future technology,we stress two likely trends.First,metabolism happens in the capital market because of technological iteration.Emerging industries could turn recessive.Second,technological advances are creating novel businesses and assets.The capital market reforms itself and responds to these innovations.Based on a comparison of institutional designs supporting high-tech businesses in US,German,Japanese and Chines markets,we propose three suggestions to develop China's capital market.Firstly,China should diversify listing rules and extend them from IPOs only to multiple forms of listings.Secondly,there should be smooth mechanisms allowing firms to transfer across market levels.Thirdly,in combination with transfer mechanisms,the delisting process must be improved to achieve proper risk sharing.