西方制裁对欧亚经济联盟的影响:发展趋势与“一带一盟”对接

The Impacts of Western Sanctions on the Eurasian Economic Union:Development Trends and the Connection between the BRI and the EEU

俄罗斯在乌克兰展开特别军事行动以来,西方对俄罗斯和白俄罗斯实施了多轮经济制裁,这不仅对欧亚经济联盟的自身实力和运行制度构成严峻挑战,还将对联盟经济发展带来严重影响。从短期看,西方制裁造成联盟成员国的经济活动进一步趋缓,给联盟未来经济发展带来巨大不确定性;从中长期看,受西方制裁影响,联盟如期实现一体化目标将面临诸多挑战。一方面,制裁导致联盟与外部世界的科技差距进一步拉大,相互贸易中的高科技产品供应将持续短缺,这使联盟经济实现科技引领突破发展的动力严重不足。另一方面,制裁导致联盟成员国的国家主权意识增强,联盟内部壁垒有所增加,导致联盟超国家机制运行效率呈下降趋势,联盟成员国经济在短期内难以摆脱在全球产品价值链中的低端位置。为应对西方制裁带来的冲击和挑战,联盟充分利用一体化机制,协商共同的应对措施,力图保持宏观经济稳定和提高抵御外部挑战的能力。在此背景下,中国在联盟对外经济合作中的地位进一步提升,有助于深化中国与欧亚经济联盟的经济合作,为推动“一带一盟”高质量对接提供了新机遇。

Since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine,the West has imposed several rounds of economic sanctions against Russia and Belarus,which not only poses a serious challenge to the strength and operating system of the Eurasian Economic Union,but also has a serious impact on the economic development of the EEU.In the short term,Western sanctions have further slowed down the economic activities of member countries,bringing huge uncertainty to future economic development.In the medium to long term,influenced by Western sanctions,the EEU will face many challenges in achieving its integration goals as scheduled Sanctions have further widened the technological gap between the alliance and the external world,resulting in a continuous shortage of high-tech product supply in mutual trade.The driving force for the Union's economy to achieve technological breakthroughs is seriously insufficient.Sanctions have led to an increase in the awareness of national sovereignty among member states,an increase in internal barriers within the Union,a decrease in the operational efficiency of the EEU supranational mechanism and a difficulty for member states economies to break free from their low-end position in the global product value chain in the short term.To cope with the impact and challenges of Western sanctions,the EEU should fully utilize the integration mechanism,negotiate common response measures,maintain macroeconomic stability,and enhance its ability to resist external challenges.In this context,China's position in the external economic cooperation of the Union has been further improved,which helps to deepen the economic cooperation between China and the EEU and furthermore,provides new opportunities for promoting the high-quality connecting of the BRI and the EEU.