渐进式市场化改革、产业政策与经济增长——基于产业链的视角

Incremental Market-oriented Reform,Industrial Policy and Economic Growth——From the Perspective of Industrial Chain

中国渐进式市场化改革按先下游部门后上游部门的顺序展开,而产业政策主要支持上游部门发展,形成市场化改革以下游部门为主、产业政策以上游部门为主的配对组合。这一配对组合如何影响中国经济增长?如果市场化改革主要作用在上游部门而产业政策重点支持下游部门,对经济增长的促进作用会更优吗?为了回答这些问题,本文基于Liu(2019)的分析框架,在理论上分析了产业链位置对市场化改革和产业政策实施效果的影响。研究发现,市场化改革与产业政策分别作用在下游部门和上游部门的经济效果最优。在此基础上,本文采用2009—2019年沪深A股上市公司和中国时间序列投入产出表数据开展数值模拟和反事实分析,比较“下游市场化改革+上游产业政策”“上游市场化改革+下游产业政策”“上游市场化改革+上游产业政策”和“下游市场化改革+下游产业政策”四种组合的产出效应,结果发现,相比于其他三种组合,现实政策组合“下游市场化改革+上游产业政策”对经济产出的促进作用最大。本文的分析结果为理解中国经济体制改革和经济管理相互配合提供了一个新视角。

China’s incremental market-oriented reforms and industrial policies have obvious structural characteristics.The incremental market-oriented reforms in China start in downstream sectors followed by upstream sectors.In contrast,industrial policies in China primarily support upstream sectors.This policy combination(we called“downstream market-oriented reforms+upstream industrial policies”)is a unique structure in China’s economic system.What impact does this combination have on China’s economic growth?Is this policy combination the most optimal for China?Answering these questions helps to not only explore the policy logic behind China’s rapid economic growth,but also understand the relationship between market-oriented reforms and industrial policies.We analyze the impact of this policy combination on economic growth with theoretical models and counterfactual analyses.Theoretically,we build a general equilibrium model of production networks with market distortions and industrial policies to analyze how the position in the supply chain affects the effect of market-oriented reforms and industrial policies.We find that the impact of the position in the supply chain on the effects of market-oriented reforms and industrial policies is asymmetric.The effect of market-oriented reforms is better in downstream sectors,while the industrial policies are more beneficial in upstream sectors.With data of the Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2019 and time series input-output tables of China in 2009 and 2018,we explore the impact of the combination of“downstream reforms+upstream industrial policies”on China’s economic growth.In addition,we construct three counterfactual policy combinations,namely,“upstream reforms+downstream industrial policies”“upstream reforms+upstream industrial policies”and“downstream reforms+downstream industrial policies”.We find that the combination of“downstream reforms+upstream industrial policies”adopted in China has the largest economic effect.This finding remains robust to the consideration of intermediate inputs,the measurement of chain location by backward linkage coefficients,and revalidation using the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database.This paper puts forwards the following policy suggestions.Firstly,the applicability of structural policies to China’s economic development should be fully recognized.Both incremental market-oriented reforms and industrial policies play an important role in optimizing the economic structure.Secondly,it is necessary to deepen market-oriented reform in upstream sectors.Our study’s contributions are twofold.Firstly,we theoretically analyze the impact of the position in the industrial chain on the benefits of market-oriented reforms.Secondly,we quantify the effects of China’s incremental market-oriented reforms and industrial policies from the perspective of the policy combination.