基于时间序列数据的货物运输方式与CO_(2)排放关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Freight Transport Mode and CO_(2) Emission Based on Time Series Data

为探究货物运输与其所产生的二氧化碳排放量之间的关系,应用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)和向量误差修正模型(VECM)相结合的方法对1960-2018年间的二氧化碳人均排放量以及公路、铁路、航空和内陆水路四种交通方式人均货运量这五类时间序列数据进行研究,确定它们之间的长期和短期动态关系,并通过格兰杰因果检验分析其中存在的因果关系。研究结果表明:长期来看,人均公路、铁路货运量分别增加1%,人均二氧化碳排放量将分别减少0.0479%、1.2057%,因此,铁路货运对二氧化碳排放的抑制作用最强,而人均航空、水路货运量分别增加1%,人均二氧化碳排放量将分别增加0.0999%、0.0717%,因此,航空与水路货运将导致二氧化碳排放量增多;短期来看,人均公路、铁路、航空与内陆水路货运量每增加1%则人均二氧化碳排放量将增加-0.0074%、0.0318%、0.0425%与0.1309%,因此,铁路货运在短期内对二氧化碳排放产生的正向影响最小;格兰杰因果关系检验表明人均公路货运量与人均二氧化碳排放量之间存在双向因果关系。因此,应加快推动公转铁进度,构建并完善公铁联运、铁水联运、公水联运等多式联运网络以实现降低货运碳排放的目标。

To investigate the relationship between freight transport and CO_(2) emissions it generates,the autoregressive distributed lag model(ARDL)and vector error correction model(VECM)were applied to mutually validate five types of time series data on CO_(2) emissions per capita and freight transport per capita by four modes of transport:road,railway,airline and in-land waterway,for the period 1960-2018,which can determine the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship between them,and analyze the existing causality by Granger causality test.The study results show that in the long term,a 1%increase in per capita road and railway freight respectively will reduce per capita CO_(2) emissions by 0.0479%and 1.2057%respectively,so railway freight has the strongest inhibitory effect on CO_(2) emissions,and a 1%increase in per capita airline and waterway freight respectively will increase per capita CO_(2) emissions by 0.0999%and 0.0717%respectively,so air and waterway freight will lead to an increase in CO_(2) emissions;in the short term,each 1%increase in per capita road,railway,airline,and in-land waterway freight increases per capita CO_(2) emissions by-0.0074%,0.0318%,0.0425%and 0.1309%,so railway freight has the least positive impact on CO_(2) emissions in the short term.Granger causality test shows a two-way causal relationship between per capita road freight and per capita CO_(2) emissions.Therefore,it s necessary to accelerate the progress of shifting road transport to rail transport,and build multimodal transport networks such as combined road-railway transport,railway-waterway intermodal transport and road-waterway intermodal transport to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions of freight transport.