局地“中等收入陷阱”危机下东北地区人力资本与经济发展耦合特征及驱动机制

Coupling Characteristics and Driving Mechanism of Human Capital and Economic Development in Northeast China Under Local Middle-income Trap Crisis

文章构建了“中等收入陷阱”危机下人力资本与经济发展耦合研究框架,借鉴耦合模型测算2004—2018年东北地区34个地级及以上城市的经济发展与人力资本耦合协调度,并对其时空演进特征、驱动机制进行深入探讨。研究发现:(1)人力资本水平的高值区域主要分布在哈大城市群、辽中南城市群的大部分地区,具有显著的空间集聚特征,经济发展水平呈现出围绕沈阳、哈尔滨两市的“双核—外围”分布特征。(2)东北地区人力资本与经济发展耦合协调水平波动上升,但上升幅度有限,轻度失调类型地区始终占据主导地位。在空间分布上,耦合协调度整体呈现出“中心—外围”的空间分布特征,沈阳、大连、长春、哈尔滨四大副省级城市人力资本与经济发展耦合协调互动的优势较为明显,其协调级别主导区域整体协调互动级别。(3)从系统耦合协调的驱动因素来看,人口红利的正向驱动作用明显高于其他因素,表明东北地区人口红利窗口并未关闭,经济可持续增长需由过去追求人口红利向人力资本红利转变。科学费用支出、房地产投资额、第三产业增加值比重同样能够促进系统间的良性互动,但作用强度较小。

This paper attempts to construct a research framework for the coupling between human capital and economic development under the "middle-income trap" crisis. The framework draws on the coupling model to calculate the coupling coordination degree between economic development and human capital in 34 prefecture-level cities in Northeast China from 2004 to 2018,and discusses the characteristics and driving mechanism of its spatio-temporal evolution. The results show that: 1) The high-value regions of human capital mainly distribute in the Harbin-Dalian urban agglomeration and most areas of the middle and south Liaoning urban agglomeration, with a significant spatial agglomeration feature.The economic development level presents a "dual-core and periphery" distribution feature around Shenyang and Harbin.2) The coupling coordination level between human capital and economic development in Northeast China fluctuates from2004 to 2018,but the increase is limited,and the basic imbalance areas always take the dominate roles. In terms of spatial distribution, the coupling coordination degree shows a characteristic of core-periphery spatial distribution. Shenyang,Dalian, Changchun and Harbin show obvious advantages in coordination and interaction between human capital and economic development, and the four cities' coordination level dominates the overall systematic coordination and interaction level. 3) From the perspective of driving factors of system coupling coordination,the positive driving effect of demographic dividend is significantly higher than other factors,which indicates that the demographic dividend window of Northeast China is not closed, sustainable economic growth needs to change from the past pursuit of demographic dividend to human capital dividend. In addition, science expenditure, real estate investment and the proportion of added value of tertiary industry can also promote the positive interaction between systems,but the effect intensity is small.