中国制造业产业链韧性测度及其时空分异特征

Measuring the Resilience of China's Manufacturing Industry Chain and Its Spatial-temporal Differentiation

文章从抵抗能力、恢复能力、演化能力和政府力量4个层面构建产业链韧性测度指标体系,并基于动态组合赋权—TOPSIS方法构建了产业链韧性测度模型。在此基础上,运用上市公司数据测度了2011—2020年中国总体以及东部、中部和西部地区14条制造业产业链的韧性水平,并采用Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数分解法以及σ收敛法分析了制造业产业链韧性的空间差异以及演变规律。结果表明:(1)中国各制造业产业链的韧性水平、驱动因素和薄弱环节方面均存在差异,其中能源、交通运输设备制造以及金属制品产业链的韧性比较大,而纺织服装服饰、造纸及文教体育用品以及其他制造业产业链的韧性较小。(2)按照产业链韧性的时序变化可以将中国制造业产业链划分为波动向好型、波动回转型和波动下滑型3种类型,多数制造业产业链在稳定中向好发展。(3)中国制造业产业链韧性呈现明显的时空分异特征。东部、西部的制造业产业链韧性均有上升趋势,中部地区有下降趋势。制造业产业链韧性区域间差距有扩大趋势。为增强中国制造业产业链韧性,缓解地区差距,文章提出了固链、强链以及推动地区间协调发展的政策建议。

This paper constructs an index system for measuring the resilience of industrial chains from the four aspects which are resistance, recovery, evolution and government power, and builds a model for measuring the resilience of industrial chains based on the dynamic combination-TOPSIS method. On this basis,this paper measures the resilience of14 manufacturing industry chains in China as a whole and in the eastern,central and western regions in 2011-2020 using data from listed companies,and analyzes the spatial differences and evolution patterns of the resilience of manufacturing industry chains using the methods of Kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and σconvergence. The results show that: 1) there are differences in the resilience level,driving factors and weak links of each manufacturing industry chain in China,among which the resilience is relatively large in terms of the energy,transportation equipment manufacturing and metal products industry chains, while the resilience is smaller in terms of the textile,clothing and apparel,papermaking,education and sporting goods and other manufacturing industry chains. 2) According to the change of the resilience of the industry chains,China's manufacturing industry chains can be divided into three types:benign fluctuation type, fluctuation-reversion type and fluctuating decline type, while the development of most manufacturing industry chains belongs to the benign fluctuation type. 3) The toughness of China's manufacturing industry chains shows obvious spatial and temporal divergence. The toughness of manufacturing industry chains in the eastern and western regions both have an upward trend,while the central region has a downward trend. The gap between regions in the resilience of manufacturing industry chains has a tendency to expand. In order to enhance the resilience of China's manufacturing industry chain and alleviate the regional disparity, this paper puts forward policy suggestions for consolidating and strengthening the chain as well as promoting coordinated development among regions.