人工智能对产业结构升级的影响机制研究——基于资本-技能互补的理论分析

A Study on the Influence Mechanism of Artificial Intelligence on Industrial Structure Upgrading:A Theoretical Analysis of Capital-skill Complementarity

人工智能成为带动中国产业升级和经济转型的主要动力,要加快培育具有重大引领带动作用的人工智能产业,促进人工智能与各产业领域深度融合。通过资本-技能互补理论建立理论分析框架,收集2015—2019年27个国家的跨国数据,使用中介效应模型验证人工智能对产业结构高级化和合理化的总效应,以及劳动力结构和收入分配不平等的机制效应。研究结论如下:(1)人工智能显著地提高产业结构高级化,对产业结构合理化的提升作用不明显;(2)劳动力结构发挥部分中介作用,即人工智能通过提升人力资本,加快产业结构高级化和合理化进程;(3)收入分配不平等也存在中介效应,即人工智能加剧收入分配不平等,造成要素错配,不利于改善产业结构合理化。中国应借鉴各国发展经验,继续发挥人工智能的效率带动作用,防止要素错配现象,完善产业结构高级化和合理化。

Artificial intelligence has become the main driving force for China's industrial upgrading and economic transformation.It is necessary to speed up the cultivation of artificial intelligence industries that play a major leading role,and promote the deep integration of artificial intelligence with various industrial fields.Based on the transnational data of 27 countries from 2015 to 2019,this paper establishes a theoretical analysis frame based on the theory of capital-skill complementarity,and uses the intermediary effect model to verify the total effect of artificial intelligence on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure and the mechanism effect of inequality in labor structure and income distribution.There are following findings:(1)Artificial intelligence significantly improves the upgrading of industrial structure,but does not play an obvious role in the rationalization of industrial structure;(2)Artificial intelligence speeds up the process of upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure by promoting human capital;(3)Income distribution inequality also has an intermediary effect,that is,artificial intelligence aggravates income distribution inequality,resulting in factor mismatch,which is not conducive to improving the rationalization of industrial structure.Therefore,China should learn from the development experience of other countries,continue to play the efficiency-driven role of artificial intelligence,and prevent the mismatch of factors.