“双循环”视角下国内消费需求扩量提质对全球价值链升级的影响研究

Impact of Quantity Expansion and Quality Improvement of Domestic Consumption Demand on China’s Global Value Chain Upgrading from the Perspective of“Dual Circulation”

基于全球价值链升级理论,分析国内消费需求量与质对中国全球价值链地位提升的影响机理,并利用全球42个国家56个行业的面板数据对其进行实证检验。研究发现:中国消费需求规模与质量、国内循环程度仍有提升空间;国内消费需求规模扩张与质量提升均有助于一国实现全球价值链升级;消费需求规模的作用具有天花板效应,而需求质量的影响则更为持久。扩展研究表明,中国国内大循环能够有效衔接需求侧至供给侧的联系,显著增强国内需求提质的全球价值链升级效应。因此,应紧紧把握“双循环”新发展格局的内涵与外延,形成以超大规模、特别是优化升级的内需市场为支撑的内生增长机制,从而实现全球价值链升级。

Base on global value chain upgrading theory,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of quantity and quality of domestic consumption demand on China’s global value chain upgrading,and test empirically by using the data of 56 industries from 42 countries.The results show that there is still room for improvement in the scale and quality of China’s consumption demand and the degree of domestic circulation.Both the scale expansion and quality improvement of domestic consumption demand help a country to upgrade in global value chains.The consumer demand scale has been found to exhibit a ceiling effect,while demand quality plays a more persistent role.The extended study shows that China’s domestic macro-circulation can effectively connect the demand side to the supply side,and significantly enhance the upgrading effect of global value chain that improved by demand quality.Therefore,connotation and extension of the new development pattern of“dual circulation”should be firmly grasped to form an endogenous growth mechanism supported by ultra-large scale,especially the optimized and upgraded domestic demand market,to realize the upgrading of global value chains.