哈密绿洲杏花始花期变化特征及预报方法研究

Study on Variation Characteristics and Forecasting Methods of the Initial Flowering Period of Apricot Blossoms in Hami Oasis

利用1991-2020年哈密国家基准气候站杏花物候观测资料和地面气象观测资料,对哈密绿洲杏花始花期变化趋势、气候成因及主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明:30 a来,哈密绿洲杏花始花期呈提前趋势,平均始花期为4月3-4日(闰年为4月2-3日);杏花始花期与1月平均最低气温、1月中旬和3月上旬平均最高气温均呈显著负相关关系;与3月及中下旬平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、平均地温均呈极显著负相关关系;与3月上旬日照时数呈显著负相关;与3月、3月中下旬相对湿度呈显著正相关;与1月下旬、3月降水量呈显著正相关;与日平均气温稳定通过≥5℃初日呈极显著正相关。利用逐步回归分析,建立了杏花始花期的预测模型,通过回代检验和预报检验,取得了较好的试验效果,可为杏花始花期预报提供参考。

Using the phenological observation of apricot blossoms and ground meteorological data from 1991 to 2020 at Hami National Reference Climatological Station,the variation trend,climatic causes and main influencing factors of the initial flowering period of the apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis were analyzed.The results showed that from 1991 to 2020,the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms in Hami Oasis had tended to occur early,while the average initial flowering period was April 3 to 4(April 2 to 3 in leap years).The initial flowering period of apricot blossoms had a significantly negative correlation with the average minimum temperature in January,and the average maximum temperature in the middle of January and March.It had a significantly negative correlation with the average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature and average ground temperature in March and mid to late March.It had a significantly negative correlation with the average sunshine duration in early March.The initial flowering period had a significantly positive correlation with the relative humidity in March and mid to late March.It had a significantly positive correlation with precipitation in late January and March.It had a significantly positive correlation with the beginning date of daily average temperature≥5℃.The prediction model of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms was established by stepwise regression analysis,and the good experimental results of the back-substitution test and prediction test showed that it could provide certain reference for the prediction of the initial flowering period of apricot blossoms.