黄颡鱼“溃疡综合征”春季流行的气候特征及预测探讨

Climatic Characteristics and Prediction of Ulcerative Disease Syndrome of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco in Spring

为做好黄颡鱼病害早期预警预报,降低鱼病暴发风险,在对2020、2021年湖北黄颡鱼春季病害调查的基础上,对比分析了黄颡鱼病害暴发前及其发生期间天气气候变化特点,提出了病害发病等级标准及鱼病气候胁迫指数的数学计算方法,并对两者统计相关分析;采用秩和检验法、百分位阈值法等方法推算病害等级预测的气候胁迫指标。结果表明:春季降温降水等天气气候急剧变化,造成鱼塘水体低温低氧环境是黄颡鱼病害暴发的催化剂;黄颡鱼病害发生等级DG与气候胁迫指数CSI之间存在显著的相关性(DG=0.215·e^(0.0251×CSI),P<0.001);综合分析得到“溃疡综合征”轻、中、重级发生对应的气候胁迫指标CSI分别为60、80、100。为黄颡鱼春季病害的气象预测提供了基础。

In order to make early warning and forecast of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco disease,and reduce the risk of fish disease outbreak,the characteristics of weather changes before and during the occurrence of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco disease were analyzed based on the investigation of the diseases of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco in spring in 2020 and 2021.The fish disease incidence grade standard and the mathematical method of climate stress index(CSI)of fish diseases were put forward,and the relationship between them was analyzed by statistical method.The index of disease prediction of climate stress was established by using rank sum test and percentile threshold method.The results showed that the rapid change of weather,such as sharp cooling and precipitation in spring,could result in low temperature and less oxygen environment of fish pond water,which was the catalyst of P.fulvidraco disease outbreak.There was a significant correlation between the disease grade(DG)and CSI(DG=0.215·e^(0.0251×CSI),P<0.001).According to the analysis,the corresponding CSI of mild,moderate and severe ulcerative syndrome occurrence were 60,80 and 100,respectively.The conclusion could provide a basis for the weather forecast of Pelteobagrus fulvidraco disease in spring.