山东省县域城镇建设用地与城镇人口脱钩关系分析

Analysis of the Decoupling Relationship Between Urban Construction Land and Urban Population at County Scale in Shandong Province

城镇建设用地与城镇人口协调发展是城乡统筹发展的基本要求,对乡村振兴及新型城镇化建设具有重要意义.以山东省为例,综合运用空间自相关、脱钩模型和空间可视化方法分析2000-2018年山东省县域城镇用地与城镇人口规模的协调关系.研究结果表明:(1)2000-2018年山东省县域城镇建设用地与城镇人口变化时空差异显著,城镇建设用地变化高及较高水平县区集中分布于济南、滨州、青岛和临沂等市,城镇人口变化高及较高水平县区趋于黄河沿岸与东部沿海地区集聚.(2)2000-2018年山东省县域城镇建设用地与城镇人口均存在显著的空间关联性,呈现明显的趋同趋势.(3)2000-2018年山东省县域城镇建设用地与城镇人口的脱钩关系存在强脱钩、扩张负脱钩、扩张链接及弱扩张脱钩4种情形,强脱钩状态的县区向中西部地区扩展,扩张链接状态的县区向东部丘陵地区转移.(4)2000-2018年人地关系欠合理区范围有所收缩,合理区与不合理区范围均有所扩张,其中人地关系合理的县区呈现向东部、南部扩张的态势,不合理的县区向北部沿海地区及东部丘陵转移.人减地增的建设用地供给和人口需求的空间错配是造成山东省县域城镇建设用地与人口关系失调的主要原因.

The coordinated development of urban construction land and urban population is the basic requirement of the overall development of urban and rural areas,which is of great significance to rural revitalization and new urbanization construction.Taking Shandong Province as an example,this paper comprehensively used spatial autocorrelation,decoupling models and spatial visualization methods to analyze the coordination relationship between urban land use and urban population size in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2018.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2018,there were significant temporal and spatial differences between urban construction land and urban population changes at county scale in Shandong Province.During the same period,the counties and districts with the highest and higher level of urban construction land changes were concentrated in the city of Jinan,Binzhou,Qingdao and Linyi,meanwhile the counties and districts with highest and higher levels of urban population changes tended to gather along the Yellow River and the eastern coastal areas.(2)From 2000 to 2018,there was a significant spatial correlation between urban construction land and urban population in Shandong Province,showing an obvious convergence trend.(3)From 2000 to 2018,there were four types of decoupling relationship between urban construction land and urban population in Shandong Province,named strong decoupling,negative expansion decoupling,expansion linking,and weak expansion decoupling.Counties and districts with strong decoupling expanded to the central and western regions,while counties and districts with expansion link state shifted to the eastern hilly areas.(4)From 2000 to 2018,the scope of areas with unreasonable man-land relationship shrunk,and the scope of both reasonable and unreasonable areas expanded.Among them,counties with reasonable man-land relationship showed a trend of expanding to the east and south,unreasonable counties and districts shifted to the northern coastal areas and the eastern hills.The spatial mismatch between the supply of construction land and the demand of population due to the decrease of people and the increase of land is the main reason for the imbalance between the relationship between construction land and population in county-level cities and towns in Shandong Province.