房地产繁荣、金融发展与人民币实际汇率

Real Estate Boom,Financial Development and Real Exchange Rate of RMB

金融发展可抑制因资本流入或国外汇款所引发的本币实际升值,那么金融发展是否能够抑制房地产业繁荣对人民币实际汇率的升值性影响?本文发现,金融发展在房地产投资对实际汇率的影响中的作用是动态、非单向的,经历了一个从抑制到助长的过程,即在房地产扩张初期,金融部门规模亦较小的情况下,它能抑制房地产投资对实际汇率产生的升值影响,但在后期,则与房地产投资一起推动了人民币实际升值。

Financial development can restrain the real appreciation of local currency caused by capital inflows or foreign remittances.Can financial development restrain the impact of real estate boom on the real appreciation of RMB exchange rate?This paper reveals that the impact of financial development on the real exchange rate in real estate investment is dynamic and non-unidirectional,experiencing a process from restraint to stimulation.In the early stage of real estate boom,the scale of financial department is also limited,and it can restrain the appreciation impact of real estate investment on the real exchange rate.However,this financial development,along with the real estate investment,promotes the real appreciation of RMB in the later stage.