生育动机的世代与性别差异分析基于CFPS2020数据

Cohort and Gender Disparities in Childbearing Motivation:Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies in 2020

当前中国的低生育率问题已成为公认的事实,其中,生育观念的转变具有关键性影响。生育动机是生育观念的重要构成部分,本文聚焦“为什么要生养子女”这一问题,考察生育动机的世代与性别差异。基于中国家庭追踪调查2020年(CFPS2020)的数据,本研究将生育动机划分为“低意愿与消极”“个体导向为主”“双导向情感型”“家庭导向为主”四类。研究发现,超过一半的中国居民仍具有家庭导向为主的生育动机,但存在世代差异,且已发生根本性的代际转变。在“80后”“90后”中,以家庭导向为主的生育动机逐渐丧失主导地位,个体导向为主的生育动机大幅度增加。另外,男性的生育动机比女性更加传统。随着出生世代的变化,男女在生育动机上的差异存在扩大的趋势,本研究从教育获得变迁的角度对此提供了可能的解释。

The current low fertility rate in China has become a recognized fact,and the change in childbearing attitude is one of the key reasons.Childbearing motivation is an important component of childbearing attitude and is at the forefront of the sequence from childbearing attitude to behavior.This article examines cohort and gender differences in childbearing motivation by asking respondents why they should have children.Based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2020,this study uses cluster analysis to classify people’s childbearing motivation into four categories:“low intention and negative”,“individual-oriented”,“dual-oriented emotional”and“family-oriented”.The result shows that more than half of Chinese residents still have family-oriented motivation of childbearing while individual-oriented and dual-oriented emotional motivation account for 23%and 15%respectively.Only 9%of the residents have low intention and negative childbearing motivation.Moreover,there are significant inter-cohort differences in childbearing motivations.Earlier birth cohorts are more likely to have dual-oriented emotional,family-oriented motivations;while younger birth cohorts are more likely to have low intention and negative,individual-oriented motivations.Among the post-80s and post-90s groups,family-oriented motivations of childbearing gradually lose their dominance,while individual-oriented motivations increase significantly.In terms of gender differences,men’s childbearing motivations are more traditional than women’s,and the extent of inter-cohort change is smaller for men.The differences in childbearing motivation between men and women tend to widen among later generations.The study suggests changes in educational attainment as a possible explanation.