“一带一路”沿线国家生物多样性保护的经济效应研究

Economic Effects of Biodiversity Conservation in Countries along One Belt and One Road

本文以澜湄次区域合作为例,分析了“一带一路”沿线国家生物多样性受到冲击后对经济的影响及其传导机制。数值模拟结果显示,任何一个国家遭受生物多样性负面冲击都将会给次区域各国带来巨大的福利损失。次区域生物多样性保护的博弈结果显示,当不存在次区域利益协调机制时,各国都将采取不进行生物多样性保护策略,从而陷入“囚徒困境”状态,但在长期的动态博弈中,各国考虑到长远利益将更多地采取生物多样性保护策略。基于此,本文提出加强澜湄次区域信息沟通机制、完善生物多样性保护成本分摊机制与制度约束、协调经济发展与生物多样保护等建议。

Taking Lancang-Mekong Sub-regional cooperation as an example,this paper analyzes the economic impact and transmission mechanism of biodiversity impacts in countries along the Belt and Road.Numerical simulation results show that any country suffering from negative impacts on biodiversity will bring huge welfare losses to countries in the sub-region.The game results of sub-regional biodiversity conservation show that when there is no sub-regional interest coordination mechanism,all countries will adopt no biodiversity conservation strategies,thus falling into a"prisoner's dilemma"state.However,in the long-term dynamic game,countries will adopt more biodiversity conservation strategies considering long-term interests.Based on this,this paper proposes suggestions on strengthening information communication mechanism in Lancang-Mekong sub-region,improving cost-sharing mechanism and institutional constraints for biodiversity conservation,and coordinating economic development and biodiversity conservation.