基于改进相互作用矩阵-模糊认知图的矿井火灾风险评价

Mine Fire Risk Assessment Based on Improved Interaction Matrix and Fuzzy Cognitive Map

针对多因素耦合作用下矿井火灾风险评价中影响因素模糊性与动态解释能力不足的问题,基于人、机、环境、管理4个维度构建矿井火灾风险评价指标体系;运用组合数有序加权(combination ordered weighted averaging,C-OWA)算子削弱主观因素影响建立相互作用矩阵,进而识别关键风险因素;将矩阵元素融入模糊认知图推理模型,预测火灾风险演化趋势;最后通过组合评价系数确定风险评价等级,并将所提方法应用到矿井实例予以验证。结果表明:该矿井火灾风险为一般风险,与实际情况相符,验证了该方法的可行性与适用性,同时该方法既能对风险因素进行耦合分析,又能实现对风险趋势的定量化预测,具有一定的优越性。

Aiming at the problem of fuzziness of influencing factors and lack of dynamic interpretation ability in mine fire risk assessment under the action of multi-factor coupling,a mine fire risk assessment index system was constructed based on four dimensions of human,machine,environment and management.The combination ordered weighted averaging(C-OWA)operator was used to weaken the influence of subjective factors and establish the interaction matrix to identify the key risk factors.The matrix elements were integrated into the fuzzy cognitive map inference model to predict the evolution trend of fire risk.Finally,the risk evaluation level was determined by the combination evaluation coefficient,and the proposed method was applied to a mine instance to verify.The results show that the fire risk of the mine is a general risk,which is consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the rationality and feasibility of the method.At the same time,the method can not only carry out the coupling analysis of risk factors,but also realize the quantitative prediction of risk trend,which has certain advantages.