“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线城市基础设施建设的影响研究

Research on the Impact of the“Belt and Road”Initiative on the Infrastructure Construction of Cities along the Route in China

基础设施建设是维持和振兴经济发展的重要手段,也是经济复苏的重要推动力。在阐述“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线城市基础设施建设的理论机制和异质性基础上,构建基础设施建设水平的指标体系。以中国278个城市2010—2020年的面板数据为基础,采用双重差分法,实证检验了“一带一路”倡议对中国沿线城市基础设施建设的影响、作用机制和异质性。研究发现:①“一带一路”倡议促进了中国沿线城市的基础设施建设,且该结论通过了平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验等稳健性检验;②“一带一路”倡议通过科学技术创新效应和产业结构升级效应对沿线城市基础设施建设产生积极影响;③“一带一路”倡议对基础设施建设的促进作用在“一带”和“一路”沿线城市之间存在明显差异,“一带”沿线城市的政策效果显著强于“一路”沿线城市;④进一步研究发现,科学技术创新效应主要表现在“一带”沿线城市,产业结构升级效应主要表现在“一路”沿线城市。“一带一路”沿线城市的基础设施建设具有“虹吸效应”,产生空间负向溢出作用。研究结论为探索经济复苏增长点提供了新的视角,丰富了基础设施建设影响因素的研究,也为政府充分发挥“一带一路”倡议的作用以及制定基础设施建设策略提供了理论和实证依据,为政府推动开放型经济高质量发展提供了政策启示。

Infrastructure development is a critical means of maintaining and revitalizing economic growth and is an important driver of economic recovery.An indicator system for infrastructure development was constructed to examine the theoretical mechanism and heterogeneity of the impact of the“Belt and Road”initiative on infrastructure development in cities along China’s borders.Using panel data from 278 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020 and employing the difference-in-differences method,the impact,mechanism,and heterogeneity of the“Belt and Road”initiative on infrastructure development in these cities were empirically examined.The“Belt and Road”initiative promoted infrastructure development in Chinese cities along its borders,and this conclusion was robustly supported by parallel trends tests,placebo tests,and other tests.The“Belt and Road”initiative had a positive impact on infrastructure development in these cities through its effects on scientific and technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading.The promotion effect of the“Belt and Road”initiative on infrastructure development varied significantly between cities along the“Belt”and the“Road,”with the policy effect being significantly stronger in“Belt”cities than in“Road”cities.Further research revealed that the effect of scientific and technological innovation was mainly manifested in“Belt”cities,while the effect of industrial structure upgrading was mainly manifested in“Road”cities.Infrastructure development in cities along the“Belt and Road”had a“siphoning effect,”which led to negative spatial spillover effects.The findings provide a new perspective for exploring economic recovery and growth points,enrich the study of the factors influencing infrastructure development,and provide theoretical and empirical evidence for the government to fully leverage the role of the“Belt and Road”initiative and formulate infrastructure development strategies.They also offer policy implications for the government to promote the high-quality development of an open economy.