基于土地利用时空格局演变的生态足迹分析——以济南市为例

Ecological Footprint Analysis Based on the Spatiotemporal Pattern Evolution of Land Use——Taking Jinan City as an Example

自20世纪70年代至今,可持续发展已经成为大部分国家共同达成的认识。中国将继续走可持续发展道路,努力实现碳达峰和碳中和。本文以生态足迹分析法为主,结合土地利用时空格局演变,衡量济南市2010—2020年可持续发展水平。其间利用ArcGIS 10.8软件和TerrSet 2020软件对济南市2010—2020年的土地利用/覆被数据进行处理,得到土地利用转移矩阵及土地利用类型增势和减势图谱,进而分析研究期内济南市土地利用时空格局演变。根据济南市2011年及2021年统计年鉴数据,计算2010年、2020年济南市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力。结果发现,2010—2020年,济南市耕地出现大面积转出,转出面积为153.61 km2;济南市2010年和2020年都出现生态赤字,2020年生态赤字相比2010年更大,济南市可持续发展状况亟待改善。

Since the 1970s,sustainable development has become a common understanding among most countries.China will continue to follow the path of sustainable development and strive to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality.Based on the ecological footprint analysis method,this paper combines the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of land use to measure the sustainable development level of Jinan City from 2010 to 2020.During this period,ArcGIS 10.8 software and TerraSet 2020 software are used to process the land use/cover data of Jinan City from 2010 to 2020,obtaining the land use transfer matrix and the map of land use type increase and decrease,and then analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of land use in Jinan City during the research period.Based on the 2011 and 2021 statistical yearbook data of Jinan City,the per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity of Jinan City in 2010 and 2020 are calculated.The results show that from 2010 to 2020,a large area of arable land was transferred out of Jinan City,with an area of 153.61 km2;Jinan City experienced ecological deficits in both 2010 and 2020,compared to 2010,the ecological deficit in 2020 was even larger,and the sustainable development situation of Jinan City urgently needs improvement.