有限理性视角下的延误旅客选择行为研究

Research on Delayed Passengers′ Choice Behavior from Perspective of Bounded Rationality

为了深入探究民航旅客延误后的选择行为规律,在离散选择模型基础上引入前景理论,基于混合Logit模型建立旅客恢复方案选择行为模型。分别设计航班延误和取消两种模拟情景实验,收集数据标定模型参数,并对旅客风险态度参数进行灵敏度分析。通过潜在类别分析划分旅客群体,并计算各类旅客时间价值。研究结果表明:考虑有限理性条件后,模型更加契合延误旅客实际选择行为。在决策时旅客对于风险有着消极的态度,且航班取消时风险厌恶程度更高。可将旅客划分为经济-务实型、经济-休闲型、休闲-商务型和高端-商务型四类异质群体,计算得出的旅客时间价值可为航空公司优化延误处置工作提供参考。

In order to deeply explore the rule of passenger′s choice behavior after delay,prospect theory is introduced on the basis of discrete choice model,and a passenger′s choice behavior model of recovery plan is established based on mixed Logit model.The flight delay and cancellation simulation scenario experiments were designed respectively,data were collected to calibrate model parameters,and sensitivity analysis of passenger risk attitude parameters was conducted.Divide passenger groups through potential category analysis,and calculate the time value of various passengers.The results show that the model is more consistent with the actual choice behavior of delayed passengers after considering the bounded rationality condition.Passengers have a negative attitude towards risks when making decisions,and the degree of risk aversion is higher when flights are cancelled.Passengers can be divided into four heterogeneous groups:economic pragmatic,economic leisure,leisure business and high-end business.The calculated time value of passengers can provide reference for airlines to optimize delay handling.